Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 56.3%. A win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 21.85% and a draw had a probability of 21.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.84%) and 0-2 (8.65%). The likeliest Newcastle Jets win was 2-1 (5.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.08%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Melbourne City in this match.