Copa Libertadores | Round of 16 | 2nd Leg
Aug 22, 2024 at 11pm UK
Estadio Cicero Pompeu de Toledo
Sao Paulo2 - 0Nacional
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Palmeiras 2-1 Sao Paulo
Sunday, August 18 at 8pm in Brasileiro
Sunday, August 18 at 8pm in Brasileiro
Goals
for
for
33
We said: Sao Paulo 1-0 Nacional
For as sharp as Nacional were defensively in the opening leg, we have difficulty believing they can replicate that against a side in Sao Paulo who are equally strong on the back end at home and have plenty of experience to draw upon in these must-win games. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 62.56%. A draw had a probability of 21.5% and a win for Nacional had a probability of 15.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.62%) and 2-1 (9.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.24%), while for a Nacional win it was 0-1 (5.35%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sao Paulo would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Sao Paulo | Draw | Nacional |
62.56% ( -0.5) | 21.54% ( 0.29) | 15.9% ( 0.22) |
| Both teams to score 48.56% ( -0.41) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
