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Ligue 1 | Gameweek 15
Dec 15, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
Parc des Princes
Lyon

PSG
3 - 1
Lyon

Dembele (8'), Vitinha (14' pen.), Ramos (88')
Kang-in (15'), Donnarumma (41')
FT(HT: 2-1)
Mikautadze (40')
Mikautadze (41'), Veretout (45+2'), Tagliafico (90+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Ligue 1 clash between Paris Saint-Germain and Lyon, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Salzburg 0-3 PSG
Tuesday, December 10 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: Lyon 3-2 Frankfurt
Thursday, December 12 at 8pm in Europa League

We said: Paris Saint-Germain 2-1 Lyon

With two lengthy unbeaten spells on the line this weekend, we are expecting a hard-fought affair between pacesetters PSG and Lyon in the French capital. Les Parisiens found their scoring boots at Salzburg on Tuesday, and with an extra two days of rest under their belts, the hosts should have enough in the tank for victory. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Paris Saint-Germain win with a probability of 60.36%. A draw had a probability of 20.1% and a win for Lyon had a probability of 19.59%.

The most likely scoreline for a Paris Saint-Germain win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.34%) and 1-0 (7.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.95%), while for a Lyon win it was 1-2 (5.23%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Paris Saint-Germain would win this match.

Result
Paris Saint-GermainDrawLyon
60.36% (-0.195 -0.2) 20.06% (0.13 0.13) 19.59% (0.067 0.07)
Both teams to score 61.18% (-0.363 -0.36)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
65.07% (-0.52499999999999 -0.52)34.93% (0.528 0.53)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
43.09% (-0.589 -0.59)56.91% (0.592 0.59)
Paris Saint-Germain Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
88.71% (-0.206 -0.21)11.29% (0.209 0.21)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
64.08% (-0.46000000000001 -0.46)35.93% (0.463 0.46)
Lyon Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.97% (-0.247 -0.25)31.04% (0.251 0.25)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.65% (-0.291 -0.29)67.35% (0.294 0.29)
Score Analysis
    Paris Saint-Germain 60.36%
    Lyon 19.59%
    Draw 20.06%
Paris Saint-GermainDrawLyon
2-1 @ 9.75% (0.026999999999999 0.03)
2-0 @ 8.34% (0.081 0.08)
1-0 @ 7.65% (0.139 0.14)
3-1 @ 7.09% (-0.041 -0.04)
3-0 @ 6.06% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
3-2 @ 4.15% (-0.053 -0.05)
4-1 @ 3.87% (-0.056 -0.06)
4-0 @ 3.3% (-0.025 -0.03)
4-2 @ 2.26% (-0.049 -0.05)
5-1 @ 1.69% (-0.039 -0.04)
5-0 @ 1.44% (-0.024 -0.02)
5-2 @ 0.99% (-0.03 -0.03)
Other @ 3.78%
Total : 60.36%
1-1 @ 8.95% (0.103 0.1)
2-2 @ 5.71% (-0.023 -0.02)
0-0 @ 3.51% (0.093 0.09)
3-3 @ 1.62% (-0.032 -0.03)
Other @ 0.29%
Total : 20.06%
1-2 @ 5.23% (0.024 0.02)
0-1 @ 4.1% (0.081 0.08)
0-2 @ 2.4% (0.031 0.03)
2-3 @ 2.23% (-0.025 -0.02)
1-3 @ 2.04% (-0.004 -0)
0-3 @ 0.94% (0.006 0.01)
Other @ 2.65%
Total : 19.59%

How you voted: PSG vs Lyon

Paris Saint-Germain
64.4%
Draw
16.9%
Lyon
18.6%
59
Head to Head
May 25, 2024 8pm
Final
Lyon
1-2
PSG
O'Brien (55')
Caleta-Car (45+2'), Tagliafico (88')
Dembele (22'), Ruiz (34')
Dembele (88')
Apr 21, 2024 8pm
Gameweek 30
PSG
4-1
Lyon
Matic (3' og.), Beraldo (6'), Ramos (32', 42')
Nuamah (37')
Sep 3, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 4
Lyon
1-4
PSG
Tolisso (74' pen.)
Tolisso (3'), Maitland-Niles (58')
Mbappe (4' pen., 45+2'), Hakimi (20'), Asensio (38')
Hernandez (48'), Zaire-Emery (73')
Apr 2, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 29
PSG
0-1
Lyon
Barcola (56')
Sep 18, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 8
Lyon
0-1
PSG
Messi (5')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
FT
Broncos
27-34
Chargers
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Paris Saint-GermainPSG16124044143040
2Marseille1593332181430
3MonacoMonaco1693426161030
4Lille1576225151027
5Lyon157442720725
6Nice156632819924
7Lens156631914524
8Auxerre156362323021
9Toulouse156361717021
10Reims155552018220
11Brest156182427-319
12Rennes155282020017
13StrasbourgStrasbourg154562527-217
14NantesNantes153571724-714
15Angers153481426-1213
16Saint-EtienneSt Etienne1541101234-2213
17Le HavreLe Havre1540111129-1812
18Montpellier HSCMontpellier1523101538-239


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