Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Notts County win with a probability of 59.95%. A draw had a probability of 21.5% and a win for Maidenhead United had a probability of 18.51%.
The most likely scoreline for a Notts County win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.07%) and 1-2 (9.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.16%), while for a Maidenhead United win it was 1-0 (5.2%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Notts County would win this match.
Result | ||
Maidenhead United | Draw | Notts County |
18.51% ( -0.13) | 21.54% ( -0.09) | 59.95% ( 0.22) |
Both teams to score 53.9% ( 0.06) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
56.44% ( 0.2) | 43.56% ( -0.19) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
34.05% ( 0.19) | 65.95% ( -0.19) |
Maidenhead United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
62.76% ( -0.03) | 37.24% ( 0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
25.98% ( -0.03) | 74.02% ( 0.03) |
Notts County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
85.88% ( 0.13) | 14.12% ( -0.13) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
58.23% ( 0.26) | 41.77% ( -0.25) |
Score Analysis |
Maidenhead United | Draw | Notts County |
1-0 @ 5.2% ( -0.05) 2-1 @ 5.02% ( -0.03) 2-0 @ 2.57% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 1.65% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 1.62% ( -0) Other @ 2.46% Total : 18.51% | 1-1 @ 10.16% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 5.26% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 4.92% ( -0) 3-3 @ 1.06% ( 0) Other @ 0.14% Total : 21.53% | 0-1 @ 10.29% ( -0.04) 0-2 @ 10.07% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 9.95% ( 0) 0-3 @ 6.57% ( 0.04) 1-3 @ 6.49% ( 0.03) 0-4 @ 3.22% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 3.21% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 3.18% ( 0.03) 2-4 @ 1.57% ( 0.01) 0-5 @ 1.26% ( 0.02) 1-5 @ 1.24% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.89% Total : 59.94% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | York City | 19 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 37 | 14 | 23 | 41 |
2 | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 19 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 37 | 16 | 21 | 41 |
3 | Barnet | 19 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 40 | 23 | 17 | 40 |
4 | Gateshead | 19 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 35 | 24 | 11 | 37 |
5 | Oldham AthleticOldham | 18 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 29 | 17 | 12 | 34 |
6 | Rochdale | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 27 | 18 | 9 | 30 |
7 | Halifax TownHalifax | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 16 | 4 | 29 |
8 | Solihull MoorsSolihull | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 35 | 32 | 3 | 28 |
9 | Yeovil TownYeovil | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 20 | 1 | 28 |
10 | AltrinchamAltrincham | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 29 | 25 | 4 | 27 |
11 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 25 |
12 | Eastleigh | 19 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 25 |
13 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 19 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 22 | 24 | -2 | 25 |
14 | Tamworth | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 22 | 33 | -11 | 25 |
15 | Dagenham & RedbridgeDag & Red | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 31 | 24 | 7 | 22 |
16 | Southend UnitedSouthend | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 22 | 24 | -2 | 22 |
17 | Aldershot TownAldershot | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 25 | 30 | -5 | 22 |
18 | Woking | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 20 |
19 | WealdstoneWealdstone | 19 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 19 |
20 | Braintree TownBraintree | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 15 | 23 | -8 | 19 |
21 | Fylde | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 23 | 37 | -14 | 18 |
22 | Maidenhead UnitedMaidenhead | 19 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 21 | 36 | -15 | 16 |
23 | Boston UnitedBoston | 19 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 19 | 32 | -13 | 14 |
24 | Ebbsfleet | 18 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 15 | 43 | -28 | 8 |
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