Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spartak Moscow win with a probability of 44.72%. A win for Arsenal Tula had a probability of 31.24% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spartak Moscow win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.3%) and 0-2 (6.84%). The likeliest Arsenal Tula win was 2-1 (7.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.12%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Spartak Moscow in this match.