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Serie A | Gameweek 38
May 25, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Salernitana

AC Milan
3 - 3
Salernitana

Leao (22'), Giroud (27'), Calabria (77')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Simy (64', 89'), Sambia (87')
Pierozzi (51')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Serie A clash between AC Milan and Salernitana, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Torino 3-1 AC Milan
Saturday, May 18 at 7.45pm in Serie A

We said: AC Milan 2-0 Salernitana

Salernitana have won just one away match on their way down to Serie B, and that tally is not set to increase at Milan's expense. Although they seem to have mentally switched off, the Rossoneri may rouse themselves to honour Stefano Pioli in his final game at San Siro. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 82.62%. A draw had a probability of 11.1% and a win for Salernitana had a probability of 6.26%.

The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 3-0 with a probability of 10.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.96%) and 3-1 (8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.04%), while for a Salernitana win it was 1-2 (1.97%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood.

Result
AC MilanDrawSalernitana
82.62% (0.825 0.83) 11.12% (-0.394 -0.39) 6.26% (-0.432 -0.43)
Both teams to score 51.72% (-0.919 -0.92)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
74.17% (0.182 0.18)25.83% (-0.185 -0.19)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
54% (0.238 0.24)45.99% (-0.238 -0.24)
AC Milan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
95.43% (0.164 0.16)4.57% (-0.1649 -0.16)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
81.33% (0.5 0.5)18.67% (-0.502 -0.5)
Salernitana Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
54.2% (-1.059 -1.06)45.8% (1.057 1.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
18.43% (-0.839 -0.84)81.57% (0.837 0.84)
Score Analysis
    AC Milan 82.61%
    Salernitana 6.26%
    Draw 11.12%
AC MilanDrawSalernitana
3-0 @ 10.24% (0.22 0.22)
2-0 @ 9.96% (0.11 0.11)
3-1 @ 8% (-0.055 -0.05)
4-0 @ 7.91% (0.265 0.27)
2-1 @ 7.78% (-0.145 -0.15)
1-0 @ 6.46% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
4-1 @ 6.17% (0.028 0.03)
5-0 @ 4.88% (0.217 0.22)
5-1 @ 3.81% (0.06 0.06)
3-2 @ 3.13% (-0.115 -0.12)
6-0 @ 2.51% (0.139 0.14)
4-2 @ 2.41% (-0.061 -0.06)
6-1 @ 1.96% (0.053 0.05)
5-2 @ 1.49% (-0.02 -0.02)
7-0 @ 1.11% (0.073 0.07)
Other @ 4.8%
Total : 82.61%
1-1 @ 5.04% (-0.152 -0.15)
2-2 @ 3.04% (-0.149 -0.15)
0-0 @ 2.09% (-0.025 -0.02)
Other @ 0.95%
Total : 11.12%
1-2 @ 1.97% (-0.12 -0.12)
0-1 @ 1.63% (-0.069 -0.07)
Other @ 2.65%
Total : 6.26%

How you voted: AC Milan vs Salernitana

AC Milan
89.8%
Draw
4.1%
Salernitana
6.1%
49
Head to Head
Dec 22, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 17
Salernitana
2-2
AC Milan
Fazio (42'), Candreva (63')
Inzaghi (33'), Kastanos (44'), Mazzocchi (71'), Gyomber (74')
Fiorillo (90+4')
Tomori (17'), Jovic (90')
Leao (35')
Mar 13, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 26
AC Milan
1-1
Salernitana
Giroud (45+1')
Dia (61')
Jan 4, 2023 11.30am
Gameweek 16
Salernitana
1-2
AC Milan
Bonazzoli (83')
Leao (10'), Tonali (15')
Feb 19, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 26
Salernitana
2-2
AC Milan
Bonazzoli (29'), Djuric (72')
Ederson (52'), Djuric (72')
Messias (5'), Rebic (77')
Bennacer (35'), Giroud (60'), Rebic (70'), Romagnoli (83')
Dec 4, 2021 2pm
Gameweek 16
AC Milan
2-0
Salernitana
Kessie (5'), Saelemaekers (18')
Bakayoko (24')

Di Tacchio (30'), Djuric (86')
rhs 2.0
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Atalanta BCAtalanta16121339172237
2Napoli16112324111335
3Inter Milan15104140152534
4Fiorentina1594228111731
5Lazio1610153023731
6Juventus16610026121428
7AC Milan167542516926
8Bologna156722118325
9Udinese166281925-620
10Empoli164751416-219
11Torino165471720-319
12Roma164481823-516
13Genoa163761324-1116
14Lecce164481027-1716
15Parma163672328-515
16Como163671828-1015
17Hellas VeronaHellas Verona1750122140-1915
18CagliariCagliari163581526-1114
19Monza161781421-710
20VeneziaVenezia1624101529-1410


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