Even if the home side have failed to break through after an hour of trying, they should eventually succeed, as Lazio have scored the most goals in the last 30 minutes of games in Serie A this season, with 22 to date.
Meanwhile, only Hellas Verona have conceded more than Venezia (coincidentally, also 22) in the same time period, which indicates a soft underbelly that could ultimately see them demoted from the top flight - only a year after completing their comeback.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 73.27%. A draw had a probability of 16.7% and a win for Venezia had a probability of 10%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.8%) and 3-0 (9.85%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.95%), while for a Venezia win it was 0-1 (3.4%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lazio would win this match.
