Serie A | Gameweek 5
Sep 22, 2024 at 2pm UK
U-Power Stadium
Monza1 - 2Bologna
We said: Monza 0-1 Bologna
Neither side has found their rhythm in the final third this season - with both averaging under one goal per game across all competitions - so it could be a single strike that separates them on Sunday. Monza's wait for a win may go on, as Bologna have a few more potential routes to goal available, and they are more likely to score. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bologna win with a probability of 37.91%. A win for Monza had a probability of 34.54% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bologna win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.09%) and 0-2 (6.9%). The likeliest Monza win was 1-0 (10.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.02%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bologna would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Monza | Draw | Bologna |
34.54% ( 0.26) | 27.55% ( 0.14) | 37.91% ( -0.39) |
| Both teams to score 49.08% ( -0.38) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
