We said: Roma 1-1 Genoa
On home soil this season, Roma have won six times and lost on four occasions, summing up their chronic inconsistency under three different managers.
As Genoa actually average more points on their travels, they can continue their impressive run of results by grinding out a low-scoring draw.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 65.71%. A draw had a probability of 20.9% and a win for Genoa had a probability of 13.39%.
The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.96%) and 2-1 (9.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.86%), while for a Genoa win it was 0-1 (5.1%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Roma would win this match.
0.89) 
-0.4) 
