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Newcastle logo
Premier League | Gameweek 34
May 2, 2021 at 2pm UK
St James' Park
Arsenal logo

Newcastle
0 - 2
Arsenal

Elneny (5'), Aubameyang (66')
Xhaka (20'), Almiron (31'), Fernandez (62')
Schar (90')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Preview: Newcastle United vs. Arsenal - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Premier League clash between Newcastle United and Arsenal, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Newcastle United take on Arsenal in the Premier League on Sunday, with the hosts looking to take another step towards surviving relegation.

Arsenal, meanwhile, will be looking to remain in the top half of the table ahead of their Europa League semi-final second leg against Villarreal on Thursday.


Match preview

Newcastle United's Joe Willock celebrates scoring their first goal against Liverpool in the Premier League on April 24, 2021© Reuters

After a winless run of six league games saw Newcastle slip perilously closer to the relegation zone, Steve Bruce's side have since taken eight points from their last four matches to move nine points clear of 18th-placed Fulham with only five matches remaining.

Within that run there have been two impressive draws against Tottenham Hotspur and Liverpool, with Arsenal loanee Joe Willock scoring dramatic late equalisers on both occasions.

While it may be a stretch to argue that Newcastle deserved a point at Anfield last weekend given that the Reds had 22 shots and 69% possession across the match, with Jurgen Klopp's faltering outfit missing several straightforward chances, the Magpies demonstrated their increasing resolve by remaining in the game.

Substitute Callum Wilson thought he had scored an injury-time equaliser after racing in behind Liverpool's high line before bundling the ball over the line, but saw his strike disallowed due to handball.

However, the visitors were not to be denied gaining a crucial point, with Willock's deflected effort five minutes into added time stealing a share of the spoils.

Bruce's side cannot mathematically guarantee survival this weekend, but should they defeat Arsenal, Fulham lose at Chelsea and West Bromwich Albion fail to beat Wolverhampton Wanderers, then they would be 12 points clear of the bottom three with only 12 points left to play for, which would all but seal their status as a Premier League side for another campaign.

Arsenal's Eddie Nketiah celebrates scoring against Fulham in the Premier League on April 18, 2021© Reuters

In truth, it could be a perfect time for Newcastle to be playing Arsenal, whose season largely rests on their progress in the Europa League.

The Gunners lost 2-1 away to Villarreal in the first leg of their Europa League semi-final on Thursday, with Nicolas Pepe claiming a crucial away goal from the penalty spot after two first-half strikes from the Spanish outfit had been compounded by Dani Ceballos's red card shortly after the break.

Mikel Arteta must quickly turn his attention back to domestic matters, then, ahead of Sunday's trip to the North East. In truth, Arsenal have little left to play for in the Premier League this season, with perhaps avoiding falling into the bottom half of the table the Spaniard's only real concern.

Should Aston Villa avoid defeat at Everton on Saturday, the Gunners will head into this match in 11th place, so while Europe will rightly remain their priority, they will still have plenty of pride on the line against a side guaranteed to be fully focused.

Newcastle United Premier League form:
  • D
  • L
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • D

Arsenal Premier League form:
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • W
  • D
  • L

Arsenal form (all competitions):
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • L



Team News

Arsenal's Alexandre Lacazette celebrates scoring against Sheffield United in the Premier League on April 11, 2021© Reuters

Bruce revealed in his press conference on Friday that he feels the "time is right" for his top goalscorer Wilson to start against Arsenal, after the England forward suggested his hamstring issue is firmly behind him with a bright cameo at Liverpool last time out.

Joelinton may drop out of the side as a result, unless Bruce chooses to switch to a back four system.

Recent goalscoring hero Willock is unavailable to feature against his parent club, while Ryan Fraser, Karl Darlow, Isaac Hayden and Jamaal Lascelles have all been ruled out for the rest of the season due to injury.

Fabian Schar will not be considered for selection after his recent knee operation, but the Switzerland defender did play for 45 minutes in a reserve match during the week and will hope to be involved in the first team at some point before the end of the season, with the Euro 2020 tournament in mind.

Arsenal, meanwhile, welcomed Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and David Luiz back to their matchday squad in Villarreal on Thursday and both may start here in order to gain crucial match fitness.

Alexandre Lacazette and Kieran Tierney are close to returning from hamstring and knee injuries respectively, but both are likely to be spared for Thursday's second leg.

Ceballos will almost certainly start given that he is suspended against Villarreal, while the likes of Matthew Ryan, Hector Bellerin, Gabriel, Cedric, Mohamed Elneny, Gabriel Martinelli and Willian may also be handed starts as Arteta shuffles his pack.

Newcastle United possible starting lineup:
Dubravka; Fernandez, Clark, Dummett; Murphy, Shelvey, Longstaff, Ritchie; Almiron, Saint-Maximin; Wilson

Arsenal possible starting lineup:
Ryan; Bellerin, Luiz, Gabriel, Cedric; Elneny, Ceballos; Willian, Smith-Rowe, Martinelli; Aubameyang


SM words green background

We say: Newcastle United 2-1 Arsenal

We expect Newcastle to build on their recent upturn in form by claiming a crucial victory against a potentially distracted and under-strength Arsenal side.

With the likes of Wilson, Miguel Almiron and Allan Saint-Maximin in attack, the Magpies can seriously damage the visitors in transition.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data


Video prediction

Watch the Sports Mole Football Shorts prediction for this game below:



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal win with a probability of 61.78%. A draw had a probability of 20.8% and a win for Newcastle United had a probability of 17.37%.

The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (10.09%) and 1-2 (9.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.82%), while for a Newcastle United win it was 1-0 (4.85%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 10.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-2 win for Arsenal in this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Newcastle vs Arsenal

Newcastle United
35.6%
Draw
20.1%
Arsenal
44.3%
194
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2Manchester CityMan City117222213923
3Chelsea115422113819
4Arsenal115421812619
5Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest115421510519
6Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton115421915419
7Fulham115331613318
8Newcastle UnitedNewcastle115331311218
9Aston Villa115331717018
10Tottenham HotspurSpurs1151523131016
11Brentford115152222016
12Bournemouth114341515015
13Manchester UnitedMan Utd114341212015
14West Ham UnitedWest Ham113351319-612
15Leicester CityLeicester112451421-710
16Everton112451017-710
17Ipswich TownIpswich111551222-108
18Crystal Palace11146815-77
19Wolverhampton WanderersWolves111371627-116
20Southampton11119721-144


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