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Copa Libertadores | Group Stage
Apr 11, 2024 at 11pm UK
Estadio Hernando Siles

Bolivar
3 - 2
Millonarios

Sagredo (3'), da Costa (10'), Savio (34')
Savio (38'), da Costa (75')
Rocha (25')
FT(HT: 3-1)
Castro (45+1', 72' pen.)
Pablo Vargas (15'), Castro (38')
Alfonzo (90+5')
Coverage of the Copa Libertadores Group Stage clash between Bolivar and Millonarios.

Form, Standings, Stats

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Last Game: Palestino 0-4 Bolivar
Friday, April 5 at 1am in Copa Libertadores
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Last Game: Millonarios 1-1 Flamengo
Tuesday, April 2 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores
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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bolivar win with a probability of 55.7%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for Millonarios had a probability of 21.56%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bolivar win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.88%) and 2-0 (9.34%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.72%), while for a Millonarios win it was 0-1 (5.83%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bolivar would win this match.

Result
BolivarDrawMillonarios
55.7% (-0.052 -0.05) 22.74% (-0.0010000000000012 -0) 21.56% (0.058 0.06)
Both teams to score 54.92% (0.094000000000001 0.09)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
55.37% (0.083999999999996 0.08)44.63% (-0.079000000000001 -0.08)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
33.01% (0.081000000000003 0.08)67% (-0.075999999999993 -0.08)
Bolivar Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.13% (0.013000000000005 0.01)15.87% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
54.92% (0.021000000000001 0.02)45.08% (-0.015999999999998 -0.02)
Millonarios Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.27% (0.10299999999999 0.1)34.73% (-0.1 -0.1)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.54% (0.108 0.11)71.46% (-0.104 -0.1)
Score Analysis
    Bolivar 55.7%
    Millonarios 21.56%
    Draw 22.73%
BolivarDrawMillonarios
1-0 @ 10.14% (-0.029999999999999 -0.03)
2-1 @ 9.88% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
2-0 @ 9.34% (-0.026000000000002 -0.03)
3-1 @ 6.06% (0.0019999999999998 0)
3-0 @ 5.73% (-0.013999999999999 -0.01)
3-2 @ 3.2% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
4-1 @ 2.79% (0.0020000000000002 0)
4-0 @ 2.64% (-0.0059999999999998 -0.01)
4-2 @ 1.48% (0.0050000000000001 0.01)
5-1 @ 1.03% (0.00099999999999989 0)
5-0 @ 0.97% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 2.45%
Total : 55.7%
1-1 @ 10.72% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-0 @ 5.51% (-0.019 -0.02)
2-2 @ 5.22% (0.014 0.01)
3-3 @ 1.13% (0.0069999999999999 0.01)
Other @ 0.15%
Total : 22.73%
0-1 @ 5.83% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
1-2 @ 5.67% (0.013 0.01)
0-2 @ 3.08% (0.0059999999999998 0.01)
1-3 @ 2% (0.01 0.01)
2-3 @ 1.84% (0.01 0.01)
0-3 @ 1.09% (0.0050000000000001 0.01)
Other @ 2.05%
Total : 21.56%

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