Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bolivar win with a probability of 70.89%. A draw had a probability of 17.3% and a win for Montevideo Wanderers had a probability of 11.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bolivar win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.64%) and 2-1 (9.57%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.15%), while for a Montevideo Wanderers win it was 0-1 (3.47%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bolivar would win this match.