Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ win with a probability of 46.5%. A win for HNK Rijeka had a probability of 28.71% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.32%) and 0-2 (7.79%). The likeliest HNK Rijeka win was 1-0 (7.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.72%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7% likelihood.