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Euro 2020 header take 8

Euro 2024
Northern Ireland national football team
Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage
Oct 14, 2023 at 2pm UK
Windsor Park
San Marino national football team

N. Ireland
3 - 0
San Marino

Smyth (5'), Magennis (11'), McMenamin (81')
Lewis (43'), Washington (64'), McNair (90+4')
FT(HT: 2-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Euro Champ Qualifying clash between Northern Ireland and San Marino, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Northern Ireland

All competitions
Last Game: Kazakhstan 1-0 N. Ireland
Sunday, September 10 at 2pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

San Marino

All competitions
Last Game: San Marino 0-4 Slovenia
Sunday, September 10 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

We said: Northern Ireland 3-0 San Marino

 Without a victory for nearly two decades, San Marino's winless run stands at 132 matches ahead of their trip to Windsor Park, where they are set to be dealt a seventh straight defeat in Group H. Northern Ireland often struggle to score, but home advantage and a relative lack of pressure should help them comfortably see off one of football's smallest minnows. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Northern Ireland win with a probability of 95.85%. A draw had a probability of 3.7% and a win for San Marino had a probability of 0.42%.

The most likely scoreline for a Northern Ireland win was 3-0 with a probability of 18.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 4-0 (16.76%) and 2-0 (15.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (2.46%), while for a San Marino win it was 0-1 (0.32%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with an 18.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 3-0 win for Northern Ireland in this match.

Result
Northern IrelandDrawSan Marino
95.85% (-0.025999999999996 -0.03) 3.73% (0.0199 0.02) 0.42% (0.007 0.01)
Both teams to score 11.78% (0.121 0.12)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
71.55% (-0.027000000000001 -0.03)28.45% (0.027999999999999 0.03)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
50.7% (-0.033000000000001 -0.03)49.3% (0.035000000000004 0.04)
Northern Ireland Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
97.2% (-0.0080000000000098 -0.01)2.8% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
87.2% (-0.029000000000011 -0.03)12.81% (0.029999999999999 0.03)
San Marino Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
12.12% (0.125 0.13)87.88% (-0.123 -0.12)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
0.77% (0.017 0.02)99.24% (-0.016000000000005 -0.02)
Score Analysis
    Northern Ireland 95.83%
    San Marino 0.42%
    Draw 3.73%
Northern IrelandDrawSan Marino
3-0 @ 18.74% (-0.020000000000003 -0.02)
4-0 @ 16.76% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-0 @ 15.72%
5-0 @ 11.98% (-0.029999999999999 -0.03)
1-0 @ 8.79% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
6-0 @ 7.15% (-0.025 -0.03)
7-0 @ 3.65% (-0.016 -0.02)
3-1 @ 2.42% (0.024 0.02)
4-1 @ 2.17% (0.02 0.02)
2-1 @ 2.03% (0.022 0.02)
8-0 @ 1.63% (-0.008 -0.01)
5-1 @ 1.55% (0.013 0.01)
6-1 @ 0.92% (0.007 0.01)
Other @ 2.32%
Total : 95.83%
0-0 @ 2.46% (0.004 0)
1-1 @ 1.14% (0.013 0.01)
Other @ 0.14%
Total : 3.73%
Other @ 0.42%
Total : 0.42%

How you voted: N. Ireland vs San Marino

Northern Ireland
74.2%
Draw
19.4%
San Marino
6.5%
31
Head to Head
Mar 23, 2023 7.45pm
Group Stage
San Marino
0-2
N. Ireland
Charles (24', 55')
> Preview
Sep 1, 2017 7.45pm
Group Stage
San Marino
0-3
N. Ireland
Magennis (70', 75'), Davis (78' pen.)
Oct 8, 2016 7.45pm
Group Stage
N. Ireland
4-0
San Marino
Davis (26' pen.), Lafferty (79', 94'), Ward (86')
> Match Report
rhs 2.0
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