New York City FC begin the defence of their MLS title on Sunday when they travel to Dignity Health Tennis Center to face the Los Angeles Galaxy.
LA missed the playoffs for a second successive campaign in 2021, only losing out because they had fewer wins than Real Salt Lake, while The Pigeons won it all, beating the Portland Timbers in a penalty shootout.
Match preview
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For a good portion of 2021, it looked as though Greg Vanney and the Galaxy were going to earn a home playoff fixture until an injury to leading goalscorer Chicharito sent them into a downward spiral that they ultimately could not recover from in time.
Los Angeles brought in some high-end attacking talent over the offseason who should be able to take some pressure off their Mexican star, while Vanney now has some strong fullbacks that can overlap effectively, adding an extra dimension for this team in transition.
What seemed to hold them back a year ago was the fact that they gave up a ton of quality scoring opportunities, conceding the second-most goals in the Western Conference (54).
That forced them to have to score three to four goals a game to win, which can be challenging to do on a consistent basis in this league.
In 2021, the Galaxy were their own worst enemy for a long time, merely hanging on in the absence of Chicharito, while their backline was exposed, as opposing teams burned them badly in transition.
It is expected that we will see more playmakers and stability from them in central midfield this time out as they have lots of talent in that department that might be able to relieve some of the pressure on their backline.
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At long last, New York managed to put all the right pieces together and claim the title after years of promising campaigns.
The Boys in Blue were probably the best side when it comes to creating chances via possession last year, as their pressing and set pieces put opposing teams under duress while they led the league in key passes with 352.
It would not be a surprise to see them retain their MLS crown in 2022, as the identity of this team is clear, and they now have the confidence of knowing that they can get over those elusive hurdles.
The first half of the season will be tricky given that they have their sights set on trying to become the first team in the league to capture the CONCACAF Champions League (CCL) since the Galaxy did it in 2000, when the tournament was known as the Champions Cup.
That is likely to force manager Ronny Deila to have to make plenty of difficult choices the further along this season goes, assuming that they are still in the running to claim the CCL trophy.
Throughout the past few years, this team have gone through their share of growing pains but have produced plenty of versatility with numerous players moving from one position to another, including Valentin Castellanos, who won the MLS Golden Boot last year.
While the Argentine is expected to be sold this summer, New York should be OK even without him, as there are plenty of pieces in place that could be ready to step into his shoes.
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Team News
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Midfielder Sebastian Lletget was traded from LA to the New England Revolution over the winter, while Designated Player Jonathan dos Santos signed with Mexican side Club America, leaving an open spot for the Galaxy to bring in one of the most exciting dribblers of the past decade in Douglas Costa.
Marco Delgado will be reunited with Vanney, who he played under at Toronto FC, winning an MLS Cup together in 2017, and he could see plenty of playing time in midfield alongside another former TFC midfielder in Victor Vazquez.
Aside from Chicharito, the next highest goalscorer for the Galaxy in 2021 was Sacha Kljestan, who had five strikes in the regular season, while Julian Araujo finished tied for the team lead in assists with six.
NYC goalkeeper Sean Johnson raised his game in the playoffs as his penalty saves against the Revs and in the final versus the Portland Timbers enabled them to capture the trophy.
James Sands is on loan at Rangers in the Scottish Premiership, Jesus Medina signed with CSKA Moscow in Russia and Ismael Tajouri-Shradi was selected in the MLS expansion draft by Charlotte FC before being traded to Los Angeles FC.
Thiago Martins joined this side from Japanese outfit Yokohama F. Marinos and could provide some excellent stability to a thin backline who still have Maxime Chanot and Alexander Callens, while Maxi Moralez created plenty of quality chances, registering 13 assists in 2021.
Los Angeles Galaxy possible starting lineup:
Bond; Villafana, Williams, Coulibaly, Araujo; Delgado, Raveloson; Cabral, Vazquez, Costa; Chicharito
New York City FC possible starting lineup:
Johnson; Amundsen, Callens, Martins, Gray; Parks, Morales; Moralez; Magno, Castellanos, Rodriguez
We say: Los Angeles Galaxy 1-3 New York City FC
The Galaxy should score plenty of goals throughout this season, but we are leaning towards New York in this one as they have played in their share of competitive fixtures heading into this MLS opener.
New York can match the offensive depth of LA while being a little more compact defensively, and they should not be as rusty as the Galaxy coming into this encounter.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 45.45%. A win for Los Angeles Galaxy had a probability of 30.54% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.42%) and 0-2 (6.99%). The likeliest Los Angeles Galaxy win was 2-1 (7.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.12%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood.
