FA Cup | Third Round
Jan 8, 2023 at 12.30pm UK
Pride Park Stadium
Derby3 - 0Barnsley
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Derby 4-0 Accrington
Monday, January 2 at 3pm in League One
Monday, January 2 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Barnsley 0-3 Bolton
Monday, January 2 at 3pm in League One
Monday, January 2 at 3pm in League One
We said: Derby County 2-1 Barnsley
The momentum is with Derby heading into Sunday's encounter and they will be regarded as slight favourites to edge themselves through to the fourth round. The Rams have already beaten the Tykes on home soil this season and we can see them securing another narrow victory. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 53.88%. A draw had a probability of 24.1% and a win for Barnsley had a probability of 22.06%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.78%) and 2-1 (9.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.44%), while for a Barnsley win it was 0-1 (6.75%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Derby County | Draw | Barnsley |
53.88% ( 0.53) | 24.06% ( -0.02) | 22.06% ( -0.51) |
| Both teams to score 51.39% ( -0.57) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
