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Port Vale
League One | Gameweek 44
Apr 13, 2024 at 3pm UK
Vale Park
Exeter City

Port Vale
2 - 4
Exeter

Chislett (31'), Dipepa (40')
Sang (28')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Alli (57', 89'), Jules (67'), Harris (79')
Alli (7'), Watts (35'), Purrington (41'), Harris (47')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Port Vale and Exeter City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Peterborough 3-0 Port Vale
Wednesday, April 10 at 7.45pm in League One
Last Game: Leyton Orient 2-2 Exeter
Tuesday, April 9 at 7.45pm in League One

We said: Port Vale 1-1 Exeter City

Port Vale will be targeting three points to boost their survival chances, but we think that the Valiants will have to settle for a draw, with Exeter currently enjoying a seven-game unbeaten run. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Port Vale win with a probability of 37.44%. A win for Exeter City had a probability of 37.12% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Port Vale win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.35%) and 2-0 (6.04%). The likeliest Exeter City win was 0-1 (8.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.01%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood.

Result
Port ValeDrawExeter City
37.44% (-0.027999999999999 -0.03) 25.43% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01) 37.12% (0.034999999999997 0.03)
Both teams to score 56.21% (0.020000000000003 0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
52.34% (0.026000000000003 0.03)47.65% (-0.027000000000001 -0.03)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
30.15% (0.023 0.02)69.85% (-0.024000000000001 -0.02)
Port Vale Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.06% (-0.0049999999999955 -0)24.94% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
40.43% (-0.007000000000005 -0.01)59.57% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
Exeter City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.88% (0.031000000000006 0.03)25.12% (-0.032 -0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
40.18% (0.042999999999999 0.04)59.82% (-0.045000000000002 -0.05)
Score Analysis
    Port Vale 37.44%
    Exeter City 37.12%
    Draw 25.43%
Port ValeDrawExeter City
1-0 @ 8.7% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-1 @ 8.35% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
2-0 @ 6.04% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
3-1 @ 3.86% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-0 @ 2.8% (-0.004 -0)
3-2 @ 2.67% (0.00099999999999989 0)
4-1 @ 1.34% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
4-0 @ 0.97% (-0.001 -0)
4-2 @ 0.93% (0.001 0)
Other @ 1.79%
Total : 37.44%
1-1 @ 12.01% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-0 @ 6.26% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
2-2 @ 5.77% (0.0019999999999998 0)
3-3 @ 1.23% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 0.16%
Total : 25.43%
0-1 @ 8.65% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
1-2 @ 8.3% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
0-2 @ 5.98% (0.0039999999999996 0)
1-3 @ 3.82% (0.0059999999999998 0.01)
0-3 @ 2.75% (0.004 0)
2-3 @ 2.66% (0.004 0)
1-4 @ 1.32% (0.0029999999999999 0)
0-4 @ 0.95% (0.002 0)
2-4 @ 0.92% (0.002 0)
Other @ 1.76%
Total : 37.12%

How you voted: Port Vale vs Exeter

Port Vale
66.7%
Draw
8.3%
Exeter City
25.0%
12
Head to Head
Dec 9, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 21
Exeter
0-1
Port Vale

Aimson (72'), Scott (84')
Aimson (90+1')
Arblaster (29')
Grant (54'), Debrah (85')
Feb 18, 2023 3pm
Nov 5, 2022 3pm
First Round
Port Vale
2-3
Exeter
Politic (25'), Butterworth (87')
Brown (43', 66'), Collins (89')
Aug 6, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 2
Exeter
4-0
Port Vale
Kite (24'), Brown (38' pen., 72'), Nombe (75')
Diabate (30'), Sweeney (35')
May 7, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 46
Exeter
0-1
Port Vale

Stubbs (45+3')
Wilson (36')
Martin (43'), Wilson (45+1'), Stone (84')
rhs 2.0
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Wycombe WanderersWycombe20135243222144
2Birmingham CityBirmingham18133234161842
3Wrexham20125330131741
4Huddersfield TownHuddersfield20123534181639
5Stockport CountyStockport21106534221236
6Reading199463028231
7Bolton WanderersBolton199462829-131
8Barnsley208662926330
9Lincoln CityLincoln207762625128
10Blackpool197572931-226
11Mansfield TownMansfield187472222025
12Stevenage187471517-225
13Peterborough UnitedPeterborough2073103837124
14Charlton AthleticCharlton196671819-124
15Exeter CityExeter197391721-424
16Wigan AthleticWigan196581716123
17Rotherham UnitedRotherham186571920-123
18Leyton Orient196491920-122
19Northampton TownNorthampton205692129-821
20Bristol Rovers1963101728-1121
21Crawley TownCrawley1954102032-1219
22Cambridge UnitedCambridge2045112035-1517
23Burton Albion1926111630-1412
24Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury1932141939-2011


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