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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Salford City win with a probability of 45.2%. A win for Morecambe had a probability of 31.9% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Salford City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.87%) and 2-0 (6.14%). The likeliest Morecambe win was 1-2 (7.44%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.1%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Salford City would win this match.
Result | ||
Salford City | Draw | Morecambe |
45.2% ( 1.44) | 22.9% ( -0.07) | 31.9% ( -1.37) |
Both teams to score 64.15% ( -0.36) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
63.22% ( -0.23) | 36.77% ( 0.23) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
41.06% ( -0.25) | 58.94% ( 0.25) |
Salford City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
83.25% ( 0.47) | 16.74% ( -0.47) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
53.33% ( 0.83) | 46.67% ( -0.84) |
Morecambe Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
77.05% ( -0.88) | 22.95% ( 0.87) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
43.27% ( -1.31) | 56.73% ( 1.3) |
Score Analysis |
Salford City | Draw | Morecambe |
2-1 @ 9.03% ( 0.15) 1-0 @ 6.87% ( 0.18) 2-0 @ 6.14% ( 0.25) 3-1 @ 5.38% ( 0.17) 3-2 @ 3.96% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 3.66% ( 0.21) 4-1 @ 2.4% ( 0.11) 4-2 @ 1.77% ( 0.04) 4-0 @ 1.63% ( 0.12) Other @ 4.37% Total : 45.2% | 1-1 @ 10.1% 2-2 @ 6.65% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 3.84% ( 0.04) 3-3 @ 1.94% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.36% Total : 22.89% | 1-2 @ 7.44% ( -0.19) 0-1 @ 5.66% ( -0.09) 0-2 @ 4.16% ( -0.17) 1-3 @ 3.65% ( -0.19) 2-3 @ 3.26% ( -0.12) 0-3 @ 2.04% ( -0.14) 1-4 @ 1.34% ( -0.11) 2-4 @ 1.2% ( -0.08) Other @ 3.14% Total : 31.9% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Port Vale | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 30 |
2 | Walsall | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 26 | 14 | 12 | 26 |
3 | Notts County | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 22 | 12 | 10 | 26 |
4 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 16 | 4 | 26 |
5 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 24 |
6 | Chesterfield | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 28 | 15 | 13 | 22 |
7 | Bradford CityBradford | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 22 |
8 | MK Dons | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 21 | 16 | 5 | 21 |
9 | BarrowBarrow | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 11 | 4 | 21 |
10 | Grimsby Town | 14 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 21 |
11 | Gillingham | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 20 |
12 | Salford City | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 20 |
13 | AFC Wimbledon | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 9 | 9 | 19 |
14 | Newport CountyNewport | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 18 | 24 | -6 | 19 |
15 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 19 | 15 | 4 | 18 |
16 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 17 |
17 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 15 |
18 | Bromley | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 14 |
19 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 14 |
20 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 22 | -7 | 13 |
21 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 16 | 20 | -4 | 12 |
22 | Swindon TownSwindon | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 12 |
23 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 14 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 12 | 28 | -16 | 8 |
24 | Morecambe | 14 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 25 | -13 | 7 |
> League Two Full Table |