We said: AC Milan 2-1 Atalanta BC
Milan have been exceptional at home over the past few months and are favourites to progress in what could be a very open game at San Siro.
It is rare for Atalanta to fail to score a goal in a game, but even if they get on the scoresheet here, it will still be a tall order for them to come to San Siro and book their place in the semi-finals.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 48.06%. A win for Atalanta BC had a probability of 27.13% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.43%) and 2-0 (8.27%). The likeliest Atalanta BC win was 0-1 (7.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.76%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood.