Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 42.39%. A win for Adelaide United had a probability of 34.78% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.29%) and 0-2 (5.52%). The likeliest Adelaide United win was 2-1 (7.79%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.9%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Melbourne Victory in this match.