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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 82.48%. A draw had a probability of 11.9% and a win for Almere City had a probability of 5.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (12.09%) and 1-0 (9.31%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.67%), while for an Almere City win it was 0-1 (2.03%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 3-0 win for Ajax in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Ajax.
Result | ||
Ajax | Draw | Almere City |
82.48% ( 0.21) | 11.92% ( -0.09) | 5.6% ( -0.12) |
Both teams to score 42.82% ( -0.47) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
66.03% ( -0.15) | 33.97% ( 0.15) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
44.17% ( -0.17) | 55.83% ( 0.17) |
Ajax Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
93.87% ( 0.01) | 6.13% ( -0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
76.74% ( 0.03) | 23.26% ( -0.02) |
Almere City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
45.62% ( -0.5) | 54.39% ( 0.51) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
12.49% ( -0.31) | 87.51% ( 0.31) |
Score Analysis |
Ajax | Draw | Almere City |
2-0 @ 12.99% ( 0.11) 3-0 @ 12.09% ( 0.12) 1-0 @ 9.31% ( 0.08) 4-0 @ 8.44% ( 0.08) 2-1 @ 7.92% ( -0.05) 3-1 @ 7.37% ( -0.04) 4-1 @ 5.14% ( -0.03) 5-0 @ 4.71% ( 0.05) 5-1 @ 2.87% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.24% ( -0.05) 6-0 @ 2.19% ( 0.02) 4-2 @ 1.57% ( -0.03) 6-1 @ 1.34% ( -0.01) Other @ 4.31% Total : 82.47% | 1-1 @ 5.67% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 3.34% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 2.41% ( -0.05) Other @ 0.51% Total : 11.93% | 0-1 @ 2.03% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 1.73% ( -0.04) Other @ 1.84% Total : 5.6% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 17 | 15 | 0 | 2 | 59 | 13 | 46 | 45 |
2 | Ajax | 17 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 37 | 16 | 21 | 39 |
3 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 17 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 34 | 28 | 6 | 36 |
4 | Feyenoord | 17 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 40 | 21 | 19 | 35 |
5 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 17 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 31 | 17 | 14 | 32 |
6 | FC Twente | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 32 | 21 | 11 | 31 |
7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 30 | 27 | 3 | 25 |
8 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 25 | 25 | 0 | 25 |
9 | Willem II | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 19 | 2 | 22 |
10 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 17 | 7 | 1 | 9 | 19 | 27 | -8 | 22 |
11 | Heerenveen | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 17 | 31 | -14 | 21 |
12 | NECNijmegen | 17 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 23 | 24 | -1 | 17 |
13 | PEC Zwolle | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 16 | 26 | -10 | 17 |
14 | Groningen | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 26 | -12 | 16 |
15 | Heracles | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 33 | -15 | 14 |
16 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 17 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 14 | 26 | -12 | 12 |
17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 17 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 37 | -27 | 9 |
18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 17 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 18 | 41 | -23 | 7 |
> Eredivisie Full Table |