We said: Fiorentina 3-0 The New Saints
Fiorentina are not likely to field a full-strength team, but their squad depth should be sufficient to avoid a slip-up against TNS.
The Serie A side have accrued plenty of experience in this competition since 2022, while their visitors are just embarking on an historic first quest into the league phase.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 56.68%. A win for The New Saints had a probability of 22.23% and a draw had a probability of 21.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.93%) and 1-0 (7.69%). The likeliest The New Saints win was 1-2 (5.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.43%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Fiorentina would win this match.