Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 49.4%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 27.62% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.04%) and 0-2 (7.28%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 2-1 (6.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.47%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood.
Result | ||
Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
27.62% ( -0.41) | 22.98% ( -0.01) | 49.4% ( 0.42) |
Both teams to score 60.95% ( -0.31) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
60.23% ( -0.26) | 39.77% ( 0.26) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
37.87% ( -0.27) | 62.13% ( 0.27) |
Wellington Phoenix Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
72.85% ( -0.42) | 27.16% ( 0.42) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
37.45% ( -0.55) | 62.56% ( 0.55) |
Melbourne Victory Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
83.67% ( 0.06) | 16.33% ( -0.05) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
54.08% ( 0.1) | 45.92% ( -0.1) |
Score Analysis |
Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
2-1 @ 6.83% ( -0.07) 1-0 @ 5.78% ( 0) 2-0 @ 3.77% ( -0.04) 3-1 @ 2.97% ( -0.06) 3-2 @ 2.69% ( -0.05) 3-0 @ 1.64% ( -0.04) 4-1 @ 0.97% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.98% Total : 27.62% | 1-1 @ 10.47% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 6.19% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 4.43% ( 0.05) 3-3 @ 1.62% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.26% Total : 22.98% | 1-2 @ 9.49% ( 0.04) 0-1 @ 8.04% ( 0.11) 0-2 @ 7.28% ( 0.11) 1-3 @ 5.73% ( 0.03) 0-3 @ 4.4% ( 0.08) 2-3 @ 3.74% ( -0.02) 1-4 @ 2.6% ( 0.02) 0-4 @ 1.99% ( 0.04) 2-4 @ 1.69% ( -0.01) 1-5 @ 0.94% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.49% Total : 49.4% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Auckland FC | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
2 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 10 |
3 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 10 |
4 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 10 |
5 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 9 |
6 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 9 |
7 | Macarthur | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 6 |
8 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 6 |
9 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 5 |
10 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 4 |
11 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 3 |
12 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 16 | -14 | 1 |
13 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 0 |
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