Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wellington Phoenix win with a probability of 46.07%. A win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 30.08% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wellington Phoenix win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.36%) and 2-0 (7.04%). The likeliest Newcastle Jets win was 1-2 (7.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.02%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Wellington Phoenix in this match.