Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Adelaide United win with a probability of 52.44%. A win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 27.08% and a draw had a probability of 20.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Adelaide United win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (6.46%) and 0-2 (5.72%). The likeliest Newcastle Jets win was 2-1 (6.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.07%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Adelaide United would win this match.