Ligue 1 | Gameweek 31
Apr 28, 2024 at 12pm UK
Stade Saint-Symphorien
Metz1 - 2Lille
We said: Metz 1-3 Lille
Metz have hit a purple patch of form to lift themselves out of the drop zone, but we cannot envisage Les Grenats making it three straight wins on Sunday. Lille have no more distractions in their pursuit of Champions League football, and we feel that Les Dogues will be comfortable winners this weekend. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 47.6%. A win for Metz had a probability of 26.53% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.23%) and 0-2 (8.77%). The likeliest Metz win was 1-0 (8.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lille would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Metz | Draw | Lille |
26.53% ( 0.05) | 25.86% ( -0) | 47.6% ( -0.05) |
| Both teams to score 50.57% ( 0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.98% ( 0.04) | 53.01% ( -0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.39% ( 0.03) | 74.61% ( -0.04) |
| Metz Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.06% ( 0.06) | 34.93% ( -0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 28.32% ( 0.07) | 71.67% ( -0.07) |
| Lille Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.72% ( -0.01) | 22.27% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 44.27% ( -0.01) | 55.72% ( 0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
Metz 26.53%
Lille 47.6%
Draw 25.85%
| Metz | Draw | Lille |
| 1-0 @ 8.18% ( 0) 2-1 @ 6.46% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 4.3% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 2.27% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 1.7% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 1.51% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.1% Total : 26.53% | 1-1 @ 12.28% 0-0 @ 7.78% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 4.85% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.94% Total : 25.85% | 0-1 @ 11.68% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 9.23% ( -0)0-2 @ 8.77% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 4.62% ( -0)0-3 @ 4.39% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.43% ( 0)1-4 @ 1.74% 0-4 @ 1.65% ( -0)2-4 @ 0.91% ( 0)Other @ 2.18% Total : 47.6% |
How you voted: Metz vs Lille
Metz
16.7%Draw
4.8%Lille
78.6%42
