Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 52.66%. A draw had a probability of 24.2% and a win for Pacos de Ferreira had a probability of 23.18%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.68%) and 0-2 (9.37%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.48%), while for a Pacos de Ferreira win it was 1-0 (6.81%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vitoria de Guimaraes would win this match.