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Newtown logo
Welsh Premier League | Gameweek 9
Apr 13, 2024 at 2.30pm UK
G.F. Grigg Latham Park

Newtown
5 - 0
Caernarfon

Williams (35', 54'), Hughes (64'), Ismail (77' pen.), Robles (90+4')
Sutton (41')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Mooney (90+3')
Coverage of the Welsh Premier League clash between Newtown AFC and Caernarfon Town.

Form, Standings, Stats

Newtown AFC

All competitions
Last Game: Bala Town 1-1 Newtown
Friday, April 5 at 7.45pm in Welsh Premier League

Caernarfon Town

All competitions
Last Game: New Saints 7-1 Caernarfon
Friday, April 5 at 7.45pm in Welsh Premier League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newtown AFC win with a probability of 50.88%. A win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 26.89% and a draw had a probability of 22.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Newtown AFC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.36%) and 2-0 (7.05%). The likeliest Caernarfon Town win was 1-2 (6.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.88%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Newtown AFC would win this match.

Result
Newtown AFCDrawCaernarfon Town
50.88% (-0.692 -0.69) 22.23% (0.264 0.26) 26.89% (0.429 0.43)
Both teams to score 63.04% (-0.561 -0.56)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
63.25% (-0.91400000000001 -0.91)36.74% (0.914 0.91)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
41.09% (-1 -1)58.91% (1.001 1)
Newtown AFC Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.29% (-0.54899999999999 -0.55)14.71% (0.55 0.55)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
57.1% (-1.067 -1.07)42.9% (1.068 1.07)
Caernarfon Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.91% (-0.181 -0.18)26.09% (0.182 0.18)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.85% (-0.243 -0.24)61.14% (0.245 0.25)
Score Analysis
    Newtown AFC 50.88%
    Caernarfon Town 26.89%
    Draw 22.23%
Newtown AFCDrawCaernarfon Town
2-1 @ 9.47% (0.0050000000000008 0.01)
1-0 @ 7.36% (0.185 0.19)
2-0 @ 7.05% (0.04 0.04)
3-1 @ 6.05% (-0.118 -0.12)
3-0 @ 4.5% (-0.063000000000001 -0.06)
3-2 @ 4.07% (-0.101 -0.1)
4-1 @ 2.9% (-0.115 -0.12)
4-0 @ 2.16% (-0.074 -0.07)
4-2 @ 1.95% (-0.088 -0.09)
5-1 @ 1.11% (-0.067 -0.07)
Other @ 4.26%
Total : 50.88%
1-1 @ 9.88% (0.199 0.2)
2-2 @ 6.36% (-0.029999999999999 -0.03)
0-0 @ 3.84% (0.169 0.17)
3-3 @ 1.82% (-0.054 -0.05)
Other @ 0.33%
Total : 22.23%
1-2 @ 6.64% (0.1 0.1)
0-1 @ 5.16% (0.202 0.2)
0-2 @ 3.46% (0.119 0.12)
1-3 @ 2.97% (0.03 0.03)
2-3 @ 2.85% (-0.028 -0.03)
0-3 @ 1.55% (0.045 0.04)
1-4 @ 1% (0.005 0.01)
2-4 @ 0.96% (-0.015 -0.02)
Other @ 2.3%
Total : 26.89%

Head to Head
Mar 1, 2024 7.45pm
Gameweek 4
Caernarfon
1-0
Newtown
Gosset (37')

Sutton (90+5')
Oct 7, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 11
Newtown
4-0
Caernarfon
Williams (40', 45+3', 71'), Sears (85')
Evans (51'), Sutton (57'), Cowans (73'), Sears (77'), Mills-Evans (89'), Jones (90+3')

Donohue (90+5')
Aug 18, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 2
Caernarfon
2-1
Newtown
Mooney (40'), Lloyd (90+1')
Clarke (45+4'), Davies (53'), Mooney (60'), Thomas (84')
Davies (82')
Williams (90+10')
Evans (18'), Roberts (68'), Ismail (80'), Boakye (84')
Dec 2, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 16
Caernarfon
2-3
Newtown
O'Rourke (30'), Edwards (62')
Robles (8'), Williams (27'), Rushton (53')
Aug 30, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 4
Newtown
2-1
Caernarfon
Rushton (3'), Williams (23')
Wynne (55')
Williams (49'), Wynne (73')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Pen-y-BontPen-y-Bont1510412982134
2The New SaintsNew Saints13100339132630
3Haverfordwest CountyHaverfordwest158521961329
4Cardiff MUCardiff MU157352017324
5Barry Town UnitedBarry156452226-422
6Caernarfon TownCaernarfon156362224-221
7Bala TownBala Town154831915420
8Connah's Quay NomadsConnah's Quay155461815319
9Newtown AFCNewtown155462030-1019
10Flint Town UnitedFlint Town1532101731-1411
11Briton Ferry132291528-138
12Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth1521121138-277
> Welsh Premier League Full Table


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