Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Royal Excel Mouscron win with a probability of 40.77%. A win for Sint-Truiden had a probability of 33.31% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Royal Excel Mouscron win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.7%) and 2-0 (6.95%). The likeliest Sint-Truiden win was 0-1 (8.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.31%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Royal Excel Mouscron would win this match.