Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Corinthians win with a probability of 43.97%. A draw had a probability of 28.9% and a win for Chapecoense had a probability of 27.14%.
The most likely scoreline for a Corinthians win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.96%) and 1-2 (8.19%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.12%), while for a Chapecoense win it was 1-0 (10.51%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 14.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Corinthians in this match.