We said: Esperance Tunis 1-0 Al Ahly
Both sides boast mean defences heading into Saturday's clash, which we expect to be cagey and keenly-contested. Esperance Tunis will be keen to take a lead into next week's second leg, and we fancy the hosts to come out on top, albeit by only a narrow margin.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Esperance Tunis win with a probability of 38.04%. A win for Al Ahly had a probability of 33.97% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Esperance Tunis win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8%) and 2-0 (7.06%). The likeliest Al Ahly win was 0-1 (10.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.15%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood.
