Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Western United win with a probability of 39.51%. A win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 36.63% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Western United win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.16%) and 2-0 (5.66%). The likeliest Newcastle Jets win was 1-2 (8.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.83%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Western United would win this match.