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Copa del Rey | Round of 32
Jan 4, 2023 at 7pm UK
Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere
Atletico Madrid logo

Real Oviedo
0 - 2
Atletico

FT(HT: 0-1)
Llorente (24'), Barrios (83')
Gimenez (44'), Witsel (80'), Griezmann (82')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Copa del Rey clash between Real Oviedo and Atletico Madrid, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Real Oviedo 1-0 Granada
Thursday, December 22 at 8pm in Copa del Rey
Last Game: Atletico 2-0 Elche
Thursday, December 29 at 8.30pm in La Liga

We said: Real Oviedo 1-2 Atletico Madrid

Real Oviedo are more than capable of making this an uncomfortable match for Atletico, and we are expecting a close contest on Wednesday. Shocks can happen at this stage of the competition, but Simeone is expected to select a strong side, so Atletico should progress into the last-16 stage of the tournament. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 56.23%. A draw had a probability of 25.3% and a win for Real Oviedo had a probability of 18.51%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.75%) and 1-2 (9.18%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.66%), while for a Real Oviedo win it was 1-0 (7.41%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 11.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.

Result
Real OviedoDrawAtletico Madrid
18.51% (-0.349 -0.35) 25.26% (-0.117 -0.12) 56.23% (0.467 0.47)
Both teams to score 42.98% (-0.23500000000001 -0.24)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
41.87% (-0.009999999999998 -0.01)58.13% (0.010999999999996 0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
21.21% (-0.0070000000000014 -0.01)78.79% (0.0080000000000098 0.01)
Real Oviedo Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
54.21% (-0.422 -0.42)45.79% (0.424 0.42)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
18.44% (-0.332 -0.33)81.56% (0.33300000000001 0.33)
Atletico Madrid Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.29% (0.185 0.19)20.71% (-0.184 -0.18)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
46.69% (0.289 0.29)53.31% (-0.287 -0.29)
Score Analysis
    Real Oviedo 18.51%
    Atletico Madrid 56.23%
    Draw 25.26%
Real OviedoDrawAtletico Madrid
1-0 @ 7.41% (-0.084000000000001 -0.08)
2-1 @ 4.55% (-0.081 -0.08)
2-0 @ 2.89% (-0.068 -0.07)
3-1 @ 1.19% (-0.035 -0.04)
3-2 @ 0.93% (-0.022 -0.02)
Other @ 1.53%
Total : 18.51%
1-1 @ 11.66% (-0.06 -0.06)
0-0 @ 9.48% (0.0039999999999996 0)
2-2 @ 3.59% (-0.043 -0.04)
Other @ 0.53%
Total : 25.26%
0-1 @ 14.93% (0.09 0.09)
0-2 @ 11.75% (0.13 0.13)
1-2 @ 9.18% (-0.0019999999999989 -0)
0-3 @ 6.17% (0.106 0.11)
1-3 @ 4.82% (0.026000000000001 0.03)
0-4 @ 2.43% (0.055 0.05)
1-4 @ 1.9% (0.021 0.02)
2-3 @ 1.88% (-0.012 -0.01)
Other @ 3.16%
Total : 56.23%

How you voted: Real Oviedo vs Atletico

Real Oviedo
7.0%
Draw
14.0%
Atletico Madrid
79.1%
43
rhs 2.0
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