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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heracles win with a probability of 40.09%. A win for Vitesse had a probability of 35.71% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Heracles win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.64%) and 2-0 (5.95%). The likeliest Vitesse win was 1-2 (8.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.13%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Heracles would win this match.
Result | ||
Heracles | Draw | Vitesse |
40.09% ( 1.23) | 24.2% ( -0.02) | 35.71% ( -1.21) |
Both teams to score 60.56% ( -0.04) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
58.03% ( 0) | 41.97% ( -0.01) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
35.62% ( 0) | 64.37% ( -0.01) |
Heracles Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
78.94% ( 0.6) | 21.06% ( -0.6) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
46.13% ( 0.92) | 53.87% ( -0.92) |
Vitesse Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
76.72% ( -0.64) | 23.28% ( 0.64) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
42.79% ( -0.94) | 57.21% ( 0.94) |
Score Analysis |
Heracles | Draw | Vitesse |
2-1 @ 8.67% ( 0.15) 1-0 @ 7.64% ( 0.14) 2-0 @ 5.95% ( 0.21) 3-1 @ 4.5% ( 0.16) 3-2 @ 3.28% ( 0.05) 3-0 @ 3.09% ( 0.16) 4-1 @ 1.75% ( 0.09) 4-2 @ 1.28% ( 0.04) 4-0 @ 1.2% ( 0.08) Other @ 2.73% Total : 40.09% | 1-1 @ 11.13% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 6.32% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 4.9% ( -0) 3-3 @ 1.6% ( -0) Other @ 0.25% Total : 24.2% | 1-2 @ 8.11% ( -0.16) 0-1 @ 7.15% ( -0.14) 0-2 @ 5.21% ( -0.2) 1-3 @ 3.94% ( -0.16) 2-3 @ 3.07% ( -0.06) 0-3 @ 2.53% ( -0.15) 1-4 @ 1.44% ( -0.09) 2-4 @ 1.12% ( -0.04) 0-4 @ 0.92% ( -0.07) Other @ 2.22% Total : 35.71% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | PSV EindhovenPSV | 32 | 28 | 3 | 1 | 107 | 19 | 88 | 87 |
2 | Feyenoord | 32 | 24 | 6 | 2 | 85 | 24 | 61 | 78 |
3 | FC Twente | 32 | 19 | 6 | 7 | 60 | 33 | 27 | 63 |
4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 32 | 18 | 7 | 7 | 64 | 36 | 28 | 61 |
5 | Ajax | 32 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 69 | 59 | 10 | 52 |
6 | NECNijmegen | 32 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 62 | 47 | 15 | 50 |
7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 32 | 13 | 10 | 9 | 46 | 43 | 3 | 49 |
8 | Go Ahead Eagles | 32 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 45 | 42 | 3 | 43 |
9 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | 48 | 47 | 1 | 43 |
10 | Heerenveen | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 51 | 65 | -14 | 37 |
11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 32 | 9 | 9 | 14 | 36 | 55 | -19 | 36 |
12 | PEC Zwolle | 32 | 9 | 8 | 15 | 43 | 64 | -21 | 35 |
13 | Almere CityAlmere City | 32 | 7 | 13 | 12 | 32 | 52 | -20 | 34 |
14 | Heracles | 32 | 9 | 5 | 18 | 41 | 70 | -29 | 32 |
15 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 32 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 36 | 52 | -16 | 28 |
16 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 46 | 69 | -23 | 26 |
R | FC VolendamVolendam | 32 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 31 | 79 | -48 | 19 |
R | Vitesse | 32 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 25 | 71 | -46 | 2 |
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