Having not taken to the pitch for a competitive match in over eight weeks, rustiness is sure to come into play for Shakhtar Donetsk, who were not hugely impressive during their period of winter friendlies.
Gattuso's men have left a lot to be desired in recent weeks too, but the importance of Mbemba's imminent return cannot be overstated, and the French outfit should be good enough for a hard-earned draw in Germany.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 51.15%. A win for Shakhtar Donetsk had a probability of 25.62% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9%) and 0-2 (8.05%). The likeliest Shakhtar Donetsk win was 2-1 (6.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.8%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
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