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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Exeter City win with a probability of 41.15%. A win for Burton Albion had a probability of 31.84% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Exeter City win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.55%) and 0-2 (7.5%). The likeliest Burton Albion win was 1-0 (9.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.81%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Exeter City in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Exeter City.
Result | ||
Burton Albion | Draw | Exeter City |
31.84% ( -0.19) | 27.01% ( -0.03) | 41.15% ( 0.22) |
Both teams to score 50.1% ( 0.02) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
44.95% ( 0.05) | 55.05% ( -0.05) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
23.69% ( 0.04) | 76.31% ( -0.04) |
Burton Albion Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
68.01% ( -0.1) | 32% ( 0.11) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
31.55% ( -0.12) | 68.46% ( 0.12) |
Exeter City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
73.67% ( 0.14) | 26.33% ( -0.14) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
38.53% ( 0.19) | 61.47% ( -0.19) |
Score Analysis |
Burton Albion | Draw | Exeter City |
1-0 @ 9.6% ( -0.05) 2-1 @ 7.3% ( -0.03) 2-0 @ 5.47% ( -0.04) 3-1 @ 2.77% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 2.08% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 1.85% ( -0) Other @ 2.77% Total : 31.84% | 1-1 @ 12.81% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 8.43% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 4.87% ( 0) Other @ 0.91% Total : 27.01% | 0-1 @ 11.24% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 8.55% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 7.5% ( 0.04) 1-3 @ 3.8% ( 0.03) 0-3 @ 3.34% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 2.17% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 1.27% ( 0.01) 0-4 @ 1.11% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.17% Total : 41.15% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 20 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 43 | 22 | 21 | 44 |
2 | Birmingham CityBirmingham | 18 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 34 | 16 | 18 | 42 |
3 | Wrexham | 21 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 31 | 14 | 17 | 42 |
4 | Huddersfield TownHuddersfield | 20 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 34 | 18 | 16 | 39 |
5 | Stockport CountyStockport | 21 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 34 | 22 | 12 | 36 |
6 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 21 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 28 | 25 | 3 | 31 |
7 | Reading | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 30 | 30 | 0 | 31 |
8 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 19 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 28 | 29 | -1 | 31 |
9 | Barnsley | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 29 | 30 | -1 | 30 |
10 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 23 | 22 | 1 | 28 |
11 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 23 | 19 | 4 | 27 |
12 | Blackpool | 20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 29 | 31 | -2 | 27 |
13 | Exeter CityExeter | 20 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 19 | 22 | -3 | 27 |
14 | Stevenage | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 26 |
15 | Leyton Orient | 20 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 23 | 20 | 3 | 25 |
16 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 38 | 37 | 1 | 24 |
17 | Wigan AthleticWigan | 20 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 19 | 18 | 1 | 24 |
18 | Rotherham UnitedRotherham | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 19 | 21 | -2 | 23 |
19 | Bristol Rovers | 20 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 18 | 29 | -11 | 22 |
20 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 21 | 34 | -13 | 21 |
21 | Crawley TownCrawley | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 20 | 32 | -12 | 19 |
22 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 20 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 20 | 35 | -15 | 17 |
23 | Burton Albion | 20 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 17 | 32 | -15 | 12 |
24 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 20 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 21 | 41 | -20 | 12 |
> League One Full Table |