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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Exeter City win with a probability of 54.44%. A draw had a probability of 23.9% and a win for Shrewsbury Town had a probability of 21.69%.
The most likely scoreline for a Exeter City win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.85%) and 1-2 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.35%), while for a Shrewsbury Town win it was 1-0 (6.62%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Exeter City would win this match.
Result | ||
Shrewsbury Town | Draw | Exeter City |
21.69% ( 0.35) | 23.87% ( 0.41) | 54.44% ( -0.76) |
Both teams to score 51.48% ( -0.81) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
50.72% ( -1.31) | 49.27% ( 1.31) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
28.66% ( -1.19) | 71.33% ( 1.19) |
Shrewsbury Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
62.78% ( -0.4) | 37.22% ( 0.4) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
25.99% ( -0.4) | 74% ( 0.39) |
Exeter City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
82% ( -0.76) | 17.99% ( 0.76) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
51.14% ( -1.32) | 48.85% ( 1.32) |
Score Analysis |
Shrewsbury Town | Draw | Exeter City |
1-0 @ 6.62% ( 0.28) 2-1 @ 5.61% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 3.27% ( 0.1) 3-1 @ 1.85% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 1.59% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 1.08% ( 0.02) Other @ 1.68% Total : 21.69% | 1-1 @ 11.35% ( 0.21) 0-0 @ 6.7% ( 0.35) 2-2 @ 4.81% ( -0.09) 3-3 @ 0.91% ( -0.05) Other @ 0.1% Total : 23.87% | 0-1 @ 11.48% ( 0.33) 0-2 @ 9.85% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 9.74% ( -0.06) 0-3 @ 5.63% ( -0.12) 1-3 @ 5.57% ( -0.18) 2-3 @ 2.75% ( -0.12) 0-4 @ 2.42% ( -0.11) 1-4 @ 2.39% ( -0.14) 2-4 @ 1.18% ( -0.08) Other @ 3.43% Total : 54.43% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Birmingham CityBirmingham | 23 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 41 | 17 | 24 | 53 |
2 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 24 | 15 | 6 | 3 | 50 | 26 | 24 | 51 |
3 | Wrexham | 25 | 15 | 6 | 4 | 37 | 18 | 19 | 51 |
4 | Huddersfield TownHuddersfield | 23 | 13 | 5 | 5 | 36 | 19 | 17 | 44 |
5 | Barnsley | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 39 | 33 | 6 | 42 |
6 | Reading | 24 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 39 | 33 | 6 | 41 |
7 | Stockport CountyStockport | 25 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 37 | 27 | 10 | 38 |
8 | Leyton Orient | 24 | 11 | 4 | 9 | 32 | 22 | 10 | 37 |
9 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 23 | 11 | 4 | 8 | 31 | 26 | 5 | 37 |
10 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 23 | 11 | 4 | 8 | 35 | 34 | 1 | 37 |
11 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 23 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 27 | 21 | 6 | 34 |
12 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 28 | 30 | -2 | 32 |
13 | Stevenage | 23 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 20 | -2 | 31 |
14 | Exeter CityExeter | 24 | 9 | 4 | 11 | 28 | 31 | -3 | 31 |
15 | Blackpool | 24 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 32 | 35 | -3 | 30 |
16 | Rotherham UnitedRotherham | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 21 | 23 | -2 | 28 |
17 | Wigan AthleticWigan | 23 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 21 | 23 | -2 | 27 |
18 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 25 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 24 | 39 | -15 | 26 |
19 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 24 | 7 | 4 | 13 | 41 | 46 | -5 | 25 |
20 | Bristol Rovers | 24 | 7 | 4 | 13 | 22 | 38 | -16 | 25 |
21 | Crawley TownCrawley | 23 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 24 | 43 | -19 | 20 |
22 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 24 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 24 | 44 | -20 | 17 |
23 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 24 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 22 | 43 | -21 | 17 |
24 | Burton Albion | 24 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 20 | 38 | -18 | 14 |
> League One Full Table |