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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Harrogate Town win with a probability of 42.83%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 31.47% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Harrogate Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.93%) and 0-2 (7.34%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 1-0 (8.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.2%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood.
Result | ||
Carlisle United | Draw | Harrogate Town |
31.47% ( -0.19) | 25.7% ( 0.19) | 42.83% ( 0) |
Both teams to score 54.08% ( -0.7) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
50.14% ( -0.88) | 49.86% ( 0.88) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
28.14% ( -0.79) | 71.86% ( 0.79) |
Carlisle United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
70.38% ( -0.56) | 29.62% ( 0.57) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
34.34% ( -0.69) | 65.66% ( 0.7) |
Harrogate Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
76.84% ( -0.38) | 23.16% ( 0.38) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
42.97% ( -0.56) | 57.03% ( 0.56) |
Score Analysis |
Carlisle United | Draw | Harrogate Town |
1-0 @ 8.35% ( 0.17) 2-1 @ 7.43% ( -0.05) 2-0 @ 5.08% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 3.01% ( -0.07) 3-2 @ 2.2% ( -0.08) 3-0 @ 2.06% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 0.92% ( -0.04) Other @ 2.43% Total : 31.47% | 1-1 @ 12.2% ( 0.1) 0-0 @ 6.86% ( 0.24) 2-2 @ 5.43% ( -0.1) 3-3 @ 1.07% ( -0.05) Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.7% | 0-1 @ 10.03% ( 0.24) 1-2 @ 8.93% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 7.34% ( 0.1) 1-3 @ 4.36% ( -0.06) 0-3 @ 3.58% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 2.65% ( -0.08) 1-4 @ 1.59% ( -0.04) 0-4 @ 1.31% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 0.97% ( -0.04) Other @ 2.07% Total : 42.82% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Port Vale | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 33 |
2 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 28 |
3 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 28 |
4 | Walsall | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 27 | 15 | 12 | 27 |
5 | MK Dons | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 19 | 8 | 27 |
6 | Notts County | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 27 |
7 | Grimsby Town | 16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 25 |
8 | AFC Wimbledon | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 13 | 10 | 23 |
9 | Bradford CityBradford | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 23 |
10 | Gillingham | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 23 |
11 | Chesterfield | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 29 | 20 | 9 | 22 |
12 | BarrowBarrow | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 22 |
13 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 21 |
14 | Salford City | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 21 |
15 | Newport CountyNewport | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 20 |
16 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 22 | 26 | -4 | 18 |
17 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 21 | 25 | -4 | 18 |
18 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 18 |
19 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 17 |
20 | Bromley | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 16 |
21 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 15 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 18 | 22 | -4 | 14 |
22 | Swindon TownSwindon | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 13 |
23 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 14 | 29 | -15 | 12 |
24 | Morecambe | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 27 | -13 | 10 |
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