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La Liga | Gameweek 22
Jan 28, 2024 at 8pm UK
Estadio Civitas Metropolitano
Valencia logo

Atletico
2 - 0
Valencia

Lino (45+5'), Depay (57')
Molina (49'), Niguez (83')
FT(HT: 1-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's La Liga clash between Atletico Madrid and Valencia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Atletico Madrid

All competitions
La Liga
Last Game: Atletico 1-0 Sevilla
Thursday, January 25 at 8pm in Copa del Rey

Valencia

All competitions
La Liga
Last Game: Valencia 1-0 Athletic Bilbao
Saturday, January 20 at 5.30pm in La Liga

We said: Atletico Madrid 1-0 Valencia

 It is almost 13 years since Valencia last beat Atletico away in the league, so it is very difficult to back them to win this game even considering their strong form. Atletico's home record this season has been excellent, meanwhile, and we are expecting Simeone's side to edge a close game here. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 55.85%. A draw had a probability of 24% and a win for Valencia had a probability of 20.13%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.6%) and 2-1 (9.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.4%), while for a Valencia win it was 0-1 (6.73%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.

Result
Atletico MadridDrawValencia
55.85% (0.802 0.8) 24.02% (-0.357 -0.36) 20.13% (-0.445 -0.45)
Both teams to score 48.81% (0.391 0.39)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
48.3% (0.86 0.86)51.7% (-0.86 -0.86)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
26.52% (0.739 0.74)73.48% (-0.741 -0.74)
Atletico Madrid Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.63% (0.628 0.63)18.37% (-0.629 -0.63)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
50.5% (1.055 1.06)49.5% (-1.056 -1.06)
Valencia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
59.79% (0.018999999999998 0.02)40.2% (-0.018999999999998 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
23.16% (0.016999999999999 0.02)76.84% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)
Score Analysis
    Atletico Madrid 55.84%
    Valencia 20.13%
    Draw 24.02%
Atletico MadridDrawValencia
1-0 @ 12.51% (-0.18 -0.18)
2-0 @ 10.6% (0.07 0.07)
2-1 @ 9.66% (0.062999999999999 0.06)
3-0 @ 5.99% (0.155 0.16)
3-1 @ 5.46% (0.143 0.14)
4-0 @ 2.54% (0.115 0.12)
3-2 @ 2.49% (0.066 0.07)
4-1 @ 2.31% (0.106 0.11)
4-2 @ 1.05% (0.048 0.05)
Other @ 3.24%
Total : 55.84%
1-1 @ 11.4% (-0.15 -0.15)
0-0 @ 7.39% (-0.257 -0.26)
2-2 @ 4.4% (0.031 0.03)
Other @ 0.83%
Total : 24.02%
0-1 @ 6.73% (-0.23 -0.23)
1-2 @ 5.2% (-0.068 -0.07)
0-2 @ 3.07% (-0.103 -0.1)
1-3 @ 1.58% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-3 @ 1.34% (0.01 0.01)
0-3 @ 0.93% (-0.031 -0.03)
Other @ 1.29%
Total : 20.13%

How you voted: Atletico vs Valencia

Atletico Madrid
83.5%
Draw
12.2%
Valencia
4.3%
115
Head to Head
Sep 16, 2023 3.15pm
Gameweek 5
Valencia
3-0
Atletico
Duro (5', 34'), Guerra (54')
Mamardashvili (56')

Hermoso (23'), Llorente (36'), Griezmann (37'), Niguez (74'), Barrios (86')
> Preview
Mar 18, 2023 8pm
Gameweek 26
Atletico
3-0
Valencia
Griezmann (23'), Carrasco (49'), Lemar (67')
> Preview
Aug 29, 2022 9pm
Gameweek 3
Valencia
0-1
Atletico

Maranhao (18'), Gattuso (26'), Correia (42'), Comert (76'), Perez (83')
Griezmann (66')
Niguez (14'), Simeone (26'), Mandava (27'), Felix (55')
> Preview
Jan 22, 2022 8pm
Gameweek 22
Atletico
3-2
Valencia
Cunha (64'), Correa (90+1'), Hermoso (90+3')
Koke (27'), Hermoso (37'), Suarez (82'), Herrera (84'), Gimenez (90+3')
Musah (25'), Duro (44')
Correia (14'), Foulquier (37'), Musah (43'), Guillamon (61'), Lato (65'), Domenech (83')
> Preview
Nov 7, 2021 3.15pm
Gameweek 13
Valencia
3-3
Atletico
Savic (50' og.), Duro (90+2', 90+6')
Guillamon (76'), Musah (90+4')
Suarez (35'), Griezmann (58'), Vrsaljko (62')
Carrasco (90'), Griezmann (90+5')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Barcelona13110240122833
2Real Madrid1283125111427
3Atletico MadridAtletico137511971226
4Villarreal127322319424
5Osasuna136341720-321
6Athletic Bilbao135531913620
7Real BetisBetis135531412220
8Real Sociedad135351110118
9Mallorca135351010018
10GironaGirona135351617-118
11Celta Vigo135262022-217
12Rayo Vallecano124441313016
13Sevilla134361218-615
14Leganes133551316-314
15AlavesAlaves134181422-813
16Las PalmasLas Palmas133371622-612
17Getafe13175811-310
18Espanyol123181122-1110
19Real ValladolidValladolid132381025-159
20Valencia11146817-97
> La Liga Full Table


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