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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Feyenoord win with a probability of 41.47%. A win for AZ Alkmaar had a probability of 35.02% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Feyenoord win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7%) and 0-2 (5.8%). The likeliest AZ Alkmaar win was 2-1 (7.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.55%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Feyenoord would win this match.
Result | ||
AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Feyenoord |
35.02% ( -0.38) | 23.51% ( 0.15) | 41.47% ( 0.23) |
Both teams to score 63% ( -0.66) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
61.26% ( -0.83) | 38.74% ( 0.83) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
38.95% ( -0.88) | 61.05% ( 0.89) |
AZ Alkmaar Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
77.84% ( -0.58) | 22.16% ( 0.58) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
44.45% ( -0.88) | 55.55% ( 0.88) |
Feyenoord Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
80.93% ( -0.25) | 19.07% ( 0.25) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
49.34% ( -0.41) | 50.66% ( 0.42) |
Score Analysis |
AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Feyenoord |
2-1 @ 7.95% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 6.37% ( 0.14) 2-0 @ 4.8% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 3.99% ( -0.08) 3-2 @ 3.31% ( -0.1) 3-0 @ 2.41% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 1.5% ( -0.06) 4-2 @ 1.25% ( -0.06) 4-0 @ 0.91% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.54% Total : 35.02% | 1-1 @ 10.55% ( 0.15) 2-2 @ 6.59% ( -0.07) 0-0 @ 4.23% ( 0.17) 3-3 @ 1.83% ( -0.07) Other @ 0.32% Total : 23.51% | 1-2 @ 8.74% ( 0.06) 0-1 @ 7% ( 0.22) 0-2 @ 5.8% ( 0.14) 1-3 @ 4.83% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 3.64% ( -0.07) 0-3 @ 3.21% ( 0.05) 1-4 @ 2% ( -0.02) 2-4 @ 1.51% ( -0.04) 0-4 @ 1.33% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.41% Total : 41.47% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 16 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 56 | 13 | 43 | 42 |
2 | Ajax | 16 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 35 | 16 | 19 | 36 |
3 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 16 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 32 | 23 | 9 | 36 |
4 | Feyenoord | 16 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 40 | 18 | 22 | 35 |
5 | FC Twente | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 32 | 20 | 12 | 31 |
6 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 30 | 17 | 13 | 29 |
7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 28 | 26 | 2 | 22 |
8 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 22 |
9 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 16 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 22 |
10 | Heerenveen | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 28 | -11 | 21 |
11 | Willem II | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 19 |
12 | NECNijmegen | 16 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 22 | 20 | 2 | 17 |
13 | PEC Zwolle | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 16 | 26 | -10 | 17 |
14 | Groningen | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 26 | -12 | 16 |
15 | Heracles | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 33 | -15 | 14 |
16 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 16 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 24 | -10 | 12 |
17 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 17 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 18 | 41 | -23 | 7 |
18 | Almere CityAlmere City | 16 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 7 | 37 | -30 | 6 |
> Eredivisie Full Table |