Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chelsea win with a probability of 52.76%. A win for Brighton & Hove Albion had a probability of 26.24% and a draw had a probability of 21%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chelsea win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.45%) and 2-0 (6.38%). The likeliest Brighton & Hove Albion win was 1-2 (6.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.76%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Chelsea would win this match.