Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Everton win with a probability of 44.27%. A win for Aston Villa had a probability of 29.01% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Everton win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.86%) and 2-0 (8.21%). The likeliest Aston Villa win was 0-1 (9.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.66%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood.