Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barnsley win with a probability of 42.87%. A win for Port Vale had a probability of 31.83% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barnsley win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.97%) and 0-2 (7.14%). The likeliest Port Vale win was 1-0 (7.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.97%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Barnsley would win this match.