Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Salt Lake win with a probability of 68.96%. A draw had a probability of 17.6% and a win for Dallas had a probability of 13.45%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Salt Lake win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.63%) and 1-0 (8.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.09%), while for a Dallas win it was 1-2 (3.87%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Real Salt Lake would win this match.