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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mansfield Town win with a probability of 48.92%. A win for Swindon Town had a probability of 28.51% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mansfield Town win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.29%) and 0-2 (6.79%). The likeliest Swindon Town win was 2-1 (6.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.04%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood.
Result | ||
Swindon Town | Draw | Mansfield Town |
28.51% ( 0.17) | 22.57% ( 0.03) | 48.92% ( -0.21) |
Both teams to score 63.19% ( 0.01) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
62.86% ( -0.04) | 37.13% ( 0.04) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
40.66% ( -0.05) | 59.33% ( 0.04) |
Swindon Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
74.79% ( 0.09) | 25.2% ( -0.1) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
40.06% ( 0.13) | 59.93% ( -0.13) |
Mansfield Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
84.48% ( -0.09) | 15.52% ( 0.08) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
55.56% ( -0.17) | 44.43% ( 0.16) |
Score Analysis |
Swindon Town | Draw | Mansfield Town |
2-1 @ 6.92% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 5.39% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 3.72% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 3.18% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 2.96% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 1.71% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 1.1% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.02% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.51% Total : 28.51% | 1-1 @ 10.04% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 6.45% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 3.91% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.84% ( 0) Other @ 0.33% Total : 22.57% | 1-2 @ 9.36% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 7.29% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 6.79% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 5.81% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 4.22% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 4% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 2.71% ( -0.02) 0-4 @ 1.96% ( -0.02) 2-4 @ 1.87% ( -0.01) 1-5 @ 1.01% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.92% Total : 48.92% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Port Vale | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 17 | 8 | 34 |
2 | Walsall | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 30 | 17 | 13 | 31 |
3 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 20 | 14 | 6 | 29 |
4 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 29 |
5 | Notts County | 17 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 28 |
6 | MK Dons | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 19 | 8 | 27 |
7 | AFC Wimbledon | 16 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 25 | 14 | 11 | 26 |
8 | Chesterfield | 17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 30 | 20 | 10 | 25 |
9 | Grimsby Town | 17 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 25 |
10 | Bradford CityBradford | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 23 |
11 | Gillingham | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 17 | 14 | 3 | 23 |
12 | BarrowBarrow | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 16 | 1 | 22 |
13 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 21 |
14 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 21 |
15 | Salford City | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 21 |
16 | Newport CountyNewport | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 21 |
17 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 16 | 23 | -7 | 21 |
18 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 22 | 26 | -4 | 18 |
19 | Bromley | 16 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 19 | 21 | -2 | 17 |
20 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 16 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 19 | 22 | -3 | 17 |
21 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 17 |
22 | Swindon TownSwindon | 17 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 20 | 28 | -8 | 13 |
23 | Morecambe | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 29 | -12 | 13 |
24 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 29 | -15 | 13 |
> League Two Full Table |