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Ligue 1
Toulouse
Ligue 1 | Gameweek 3
Aug 31, 2024 at 8pm UK
Stadium de Toulouse (Toulouse)
Marseille

Toulouse
1 - 3
Marseille

Babicka (90')
Casseres Jr (44'), Donnum (49'), Babicka (73'), Sierro (82'), Martinez (86')
Magri (27')
FT(HT: 0-2)
Greenwood (16', 17'), Cresswell (52' og.)
Hojbjerg (10'), Brassier (73')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Ligue 1 clash between Toulouse and Marseille, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Toulouse

All competitions
Ligue 1
Last Game: Nice 1-1 Toulouse
Sunday, August 25 at 4pm in Ligue 1

Marseille

All competitions
Ligue 1
Last Game: Marseille 2-2 Reims
Sunday, August 25 at 7.45pm in Ligue 1

We said: Toulouse 1-3 Marseille

 If the first two games are anything to go by, De Zerbi's Marseille will be a very entertaining watch this season for the neutrals, and that could continue here on the road. Toulouse's woeful record against Marseille does not bode well, and after not showing enough in the final third to win either of their opening two matches, they may come up short here. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 46.22%. A win for Toulouse had a probability of 27.72% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.12%) and 0-2 (8.46%). The likeliest Toulouse win was 1-0 (8.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.38%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-3 win for Marseille in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Marseille.

Result
ToulouseDrawMarseille
27.72% (0.073 0.07) 26.06% (0.027000000000001 0.03) 46.22% (-0.101 -0.1)
Both teams to score 50.86% (-0.034999999999997 -0.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
46.93% (-0.07 -0.07)53.07% (0.068000000000005 0.07)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
25.35% (-0.061 -0.06)74.65% (0.058999999999997 0.06)
Toulouse Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.99% (0.019000000000005 0.02)34.01% (-0.020000000000003 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
29.31% (0.021000000000001 0.02)70.69% (-0.022000000000006 -0.02)
Marseille Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.07% (-0.076999999999998 -0.08)22.93% (0.075999999999997 0.08)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
43.3% (-0.114 -0.11)56.7% (0.113 0.11)
Score Analysis
    Toulouse 27.72%
    Marseille 46.22%
    Draw 26.06%
ToulouseDrawMarseille
1-0 @ 8.41% (0.027000000000001 0.03)
2-1 @ 6.68% (0.011 0.01)
2-0 @ 4.54% (0.017 0.02)
3-1 @ 2.4% (0.0050000000000003 0.01)
3-2 @ 1.77%
3-0 @ 1.63% (0.008 0.01)
Other @ 2.29%
Total : 27.72%
1-1 @ 12.38% (0.010000000000002 0.01)
0-0 @ 7.8% (0.021 0.02)
2-2 @ 4.92% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Other @ 0.96%
Total : 26.06%
0-1 @ 11.48% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
1-2 @ 9.12% (-0.010999999999999 -0.01)
0-2 @ 8.46% (-0.014999999999999 -0.01)
1-3 @ 4.48% (-0.015 -0.01)
0-3 @ 4.15% (-0.016999999999999 -0.02)
2-3 @ 2.42% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
1-4 @ 1.65% (-0.01 -0.01)
0-4 @ 1.53% (-0.0090000000000001 -0.01)
Other @ 2.93%
Total : 46.22%

How you voted: Toulouse vs Marseille

Toulouse
12.8%
Draw
14.0%
Marseille
73.3%
86
Head to Head
Apr 21, 2024 6.15pm
Gameweek 30
Toulouse
2-2
Marseille
Nicolaisen (45+2'), Gboho (82')
Diarra (39')
Onana (38'), Moumbagna (90+6')
Murillo (33'), Ounahi (47')
> Preview
Sep 17, 2023 4.05pm
Gameweek 5
Marseille
0-0
Toulouse
Correa (64'), Marcelino (80+80'), Harit (89')
Schmidt (4'), Desler (45'), Magri (77'), Restes (79'), Bangre (90+5')
> Preview
Feb 19, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 24
Toulouse
2-3
Marseille
Dallinga (3'), Onaiwu (87')
Mbemba (52'), Under (59'), Tavares (78')
> Preview
Dec 29, 2022 8pm
Gameweek 16
Marseille
6-1
Toulouse
Rongier (13'), Nicolaisen (41' og.), Kolasinac (51'), Payet (61'), Under (80' pen.), Tavares (82')
Van den Boomen (66' pen.)
> Preview
Feb 8, 2020 4.30pm
Gameweek 24
Marseille
1-0
Toulouse
Payet (51')
Gonzalez (15')

Makengo (61'), Sylla (71')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Paris Saint-GermainPSG15114040122837
2Marseille1593332181430
3MonacoMonaco1593324121230
4Lille1576225151027
5Lyon157442720725
6Nice156632819924
7Lens156631914524
8Auxerre156362323021
9Toulouse156361717021
10Reims155552018220
11Brest156182427-319
12Rennes155282020017
13StrasbourgStrasbourg154562527-217
14NantesNantes153571724-714
15Angers153481426-1213
16Saint-EtienneSt Etienne1541101234-2213
17Le HavreLe Havre1540111129-1812
18Montpellier HSCMontpellier1523101538-239
> Ligue 1 Full Table


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