MX23RW : Saturday, December 21 04:39:08| >> :300:86500:86500:
Welsh Premier League | Gameweek 12
Oct 17, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
The Oval

Caernarfon
3 - 0
Aberystwyth

Clarke (59' pen.), Davies (66'), Lloyd (85')
Cartwright (4'), Donohue (63'), Gosset (78')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Thorn (28'), H (82')
Coverage of the Welsh Premier League clash between Caernarfon Town and Aberystwyth Town.

Form, Standings, Stats

Caernarfon Town

All competitions
Last Game: Newtown 4-0 Caernarfon
Saturday, October 7 at 2.30pm in Welsh Premier League

Aberystwyth Town

All competitions
Last Game: Aberystwyth 1-1 Connah's Quay
Friday, October 6 at 8pm in Welsh Premier League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Caernarfon Town win with a probability of 43.2%. A win for Aberystwyth Town had a probability of 31.91% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Caernarfon Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.03%) and 2-0 (7%). The likeliest Aberystwyth Town win was 0-1 (7.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.71%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Caernarfon Town would win this match.

Result
Caernarfon TownDrawAberystwyth Town
43.2% (1.592 1.59) 24.89% (-0.038 -0.04) 31.91% (-1.556 -1.56)
Both teams to score 56.99% (-0.434 -0.43)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
53.83% (-0.32100000000001 -0.32)46.16% (0.317 0.32)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.54% (-0.302 -0.3)68.46% (0.30099999999999 0.3)
Caernarfon Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.6% (0.60900000000001 0.61)21.4% (-0.611 -0.61)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
45.61% (0.93 0.93)54.39% (-0.933 -0.93)
Aberystwyth Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.5% (-1.125 -1.13)27.5% (1.122 1.12)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37% (-1.473 -1.47)63% (1.47 1.47)
Score Analysis
    Caernarfon Town 43.2%
    Aberystwyth Town 31.91%
    Draw 24.89%
Caernarfon TownDrawAberystwyth Town
1-0 @ 9.07% (0.285 0.29)
2-1 @ 9.03% (0.166 0.17)
2-0 @ 7% (0.344 0.34)
3-1 @ 4.64% (0.168 0.17)
3-0 @ 3.6% (0.239 0.24)
3-2 @ 3% (0.016 0.02)
4-1 @ 1.79% (0.096 0.1)
4-0 @ 1.39% (0.116 0.12)
4-2 @ 1.16% (0.027 0.03)
Other @ 2.54%
Total : 43.2%
1-1 @ 11.71%
0-0 @ 5.88% (0.079000000000001 0.08)
2-2 @ 5.83% (-0.077 -0.08)
3-3 @ 1.29% (-0.035 -0.04)
Other @ 0.17%
Total : 24.89%
0-1 @ 7.6% (-0.14 -0.14)
1-2 @ 7.56% (-0.242 -0.24)
0-2 @ 4.9% (-0.252 -0.25)
1-3 @ 3.25% (-0.212 -0.21)
2-3 @ 2.51% (-0.116 -0.12)
0-3 @ 2.11% (-0.18 -0.18)
1-4 @ 1.05% (-0.105 -0.11)
Other @ 2.93%
Total : 31.91%

Head to Head
Sep 9, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 6
Aberystwyth
2-4
Caernarfon
Owen (4'), Lewis (26')
Bradford (40'), Jones (66')
Clarke (6', 19'), Davies (71', 90+2')
Lloyd (34')
Apr 22, 2023 12.45pm
Gameweek 10
Aberystwyth
3-2
Caernarfon
Arnison (39'), Cadwallader (55'), Flint (90+4')
Hughes (2'), Bell (45+1')
Mar 17, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 5
Caernarfon
0-1
Aberystwyth
Flint (41')
Jan 21, 2023 5.15pm
Gameweek 22
Aberystwyth
2-1
Caernarfon
Arnison (8'), Flint (77')
Alun (89')
Oct 21, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 12
Caernarfon
2-1
Aberystwyth
O'Rourke (20'), Marsh-Hughes (73')
Litchfield (81')
rhs 2.0
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Pen-y-BontPen-y-Bont18124235122340
2The New SaintsNew Saints17120545202536
3Cardiff MUCardiff MU199462922731
4Haverfordwest CountyHaverfordwest188642091130
5Caernarfon TownCaernarfon188462727028
6Barry Town UnitedBarry188462932-328
7Bala TownBala Town1851032318525
8Connah's Quay NomadsConnah's Quay186572419523
9Newtown AFCNewtown185492238-1619
10Flint Town UnitedFlint Town1952122337-1417
11Briton Ferry1742112133-1214
12Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth1831141445-3110
> Welsh Premier League Full Table


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