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Adelaide United
Australian A-League | 1st Leg
May 13, 2023 at 10.45am UK
Hindmarsh Stadium, Adelaide
Central Coast Mariners

Adelaide United
1 - 2
Central Coast

Goodwin (4' pen.)
Sanchez (65'), Kitto (79'), Irankunda (82')
FT(HT: 1-2)
McGarry (15'), Cummings (37')
Triantis (53'), Farrell (62'), Theoharous (90+5')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Australian A-League clash between Adelaide United and Central Coast Mariners, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Adelaide United 2-0 Wellington
Friday, May 5 at 10.45am in Australian A-League
Last Game: Adelaide United 1-4 Central Coast
Friday, April 28 at 10.45am in Australian A-League

We said: Adelaide United 1-1 Central Coast Mariners

With this being the first leg of the semi-final, it is likely to be quite a nervous and cautious encounter with neither team wanting to give too much away heading into the second game. Considering that, it would not be a surprise to see the two teams play out a draw in this match, leaving it all to play for in the reverse fixture. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Adelaide United win with a probability of 40.67%. A win for Central Coast Mariners had a probability of 36.88% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.

The most likely scoreline for an Adelaide United win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.63%) and 2-0 (4.98%). The likeliest Central Coast Mariners win was 1-2 (7.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.45%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood.

Result
Adelaide UnitedDrawCentral Coast Mariners
40.67% (-0.366 -0.37) 22.44% (0.012 0.01) 36.88% (0.352 0.35)
Both teams to score 67.47% (0.01400000000001 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
66.94% (-0.0049999999999955 -0)33.06% (0.0039999999999978 0)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
45.21% (-0.0050000000000026 -0.01)54.79% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Adelaide United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.96% (-0.14999999999999 -0.15)17.04% (0.148 0.15)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
52.81% (-0.266 -0.27)47.19% (0.264 0.26)
Central Coast Mariners Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.33% (0.16099999999999 0.16)18.67% (-0.162 -0.16)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
49.99% (0.267 0.27)50.01% (-0.269 -0.27)
Score Analysis
    Adelaide United 40.67%
    Central Coast Mariners 36.88%
    Draw 22.44%
Adelaide UnitedDrawCentral Coast Mariners
2-1 @ 8.36% (-0.037999999999998 -0.04)
1-0 @ 5.63% (-0.027 -0.03)
2-0 @ 4.98% (-0.048999999999999 -0.05)
3-1 @ 4.93% (-0.047 -0.05)
3-2 @ 4.14% (-0.018 -0.02)
3-0 @ 2.94% (-0.044 -0.04)
4-1 @ 2.18% (-0.032 -0.03)
4-2 @ 1.83% (-0.017 -0.02)
4-0 @ 1.3% (-0.025 -0.03)
4-3 @ 1.02% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
Other @ 3.35%
Total : 40.67%
1-1 @ 9.45% (0.0039999999999996 0)
2-2 @ 7.02% (0.0039999999999996 0)
0-0 @ 3.18% (0.00099999999999989 0)
3-3 @ 2.32% (0.0019999999999998 0)
Other @ 0.49%
Total : 22.44%
1-2 @ 7.93% (0.042999999999999 0.04)
0-1 @ 5.34% (0.028 0.03)
0-2 @ 4.48% (0.047 0.05)
1-3 @ 4.43% (0.047000000000001 0.05)
2-3 @ 3.92% (0.022 0.02)
0-3 @ 2.51% (0.038 0.04)
1-4 @ 1.86% (0.029 0.03)
2-4 @ 1.65% (0.017 0.02)
0-4 @ 1.05% (0.021 0.02)
3-4 @ 0.97% (0.005 0.01)
Other @ 2.75%
Total : 36.88%

How you voted: Adelaide United vs Central Coast

Adelaide United
35.7%
Draw
0.0%
Central Coast Mariners
64.3%
14
Head to Head
Apr 28, 2023 10.45am
gameweek 26
Adelaide United
1-4
Central Coast
Kitto (90+3')
Irankunda (60')
Tulio (23', 57'), N'Kololo (41'), Steele (87')
Farrell (86'), Tulio (90+4')
Jan 7, 2023 6am
gameweek 11
Central Coast
4-0
Adelaide United
Popovic (31' og.), N'Kololo (48'), Madanha (55' og.), Farrell (58')

Clough (49'), Juande (54')
Sanchez (46')
May 15, 2022 7.05am
Adelaide United
3-1
Central Coast
Goodwin (26'), Yengi (67'), Oliveira (90+2')
Sanchez (19'), Goodwin (64')
Roux (71')
Farrell (34'), Steele (44')
Mar 26, 2022 8.45am
gameweek 20
Central Coast
3-0
Adelaide United
Urena (77'), Cummings (90+1'), Hatch (90+3')
Moresche (85')
Moresche (90+5')

Juande (73'), Lopez (89')
Gauci (27')
Feb 26, 2022 8.45am
gameweek 16
Adelaide United
2-1
Central Coast
Ibusuki (52'), Irankunda (90+2')
Tratt (67'), Kitto (86')
N'Kololo (35')
Rowles (48'), Farrell (65'), Balard (89')
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