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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 59.98%. A draw had a probability of 20.2% and a win for Hoffenheim had a probability of 19.86%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.28%) and 0-1 (7.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.98%), while for a Hoffenheim win it was 2-1 (5.29%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayer Leverkusen would win this match.
Result | ||
Hoffenheim | Draw | Bayer Leverkusen |
19.86% ( -4.47) | 20.16% ( -2.06) | 59.98% ( 6.53) |
Both teams to score 61.31% ( 0.97) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
65.03% ( 4.15) | 34.97% ( -4.14) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
43.04% ( 4.49) | 56.96% ( -4.48) |
Hoffenheim Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
69.2% ( -1.53) | 30.79% ( 1.53) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
32.93% ( -1.85) | 67.07% ( 1.85) |
Bayer Leverkusen Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
88.59% ( 3.29) | 11.4% ( -3.29) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
63.83% ( 6.71) | 36.17% ( -6.71) |
Score Analysis |
Hoffenheim | Draw | Bayer Leverkusen |
2-1 @ 5.29% ( -0.94) 1-0 @ 4.14% ( -1.15) 2-0 @ 2.44% ( -0.81) 3-2 @ 2.25% ( -0.19) 3-1 @ 2.08% ( -0.47) 3-0 @ 0.96% ( -0.37) Other @ 2.71% Total : 19.86% | 1-1 @ 8.98% ( -1.15) 2-2 @ 5.74% ( -0.23) 0-0 @ 3.51% ( -0.79) 3-3 @ 1.63% ( 0.07) Other @ 0.29% Total : 20.16% | 1-2 @ 9.75% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 8.28% ( 0.37) 0-1 @ 7.63% ( -0.62) 1-3 @ 7.06% ( 0.85) 0-3 @ 5.99% ( 0.94) 2-3 @ 4.16% ( 0.34) 1-4 @ 3.83% ( 0.85) 0-4 @ 3.25% ( 0.83) 2-4 @ 2.26% ( 0.43) 1-5 @ 1.66% ( 0.52) 0-5 @ 1.41% ( 0.48) 2-5 @ 0.98% ( 0.28) Other @ 3.74% Total : 59.98% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Bayern MunichBayern | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 36 | 7 | 29 | 29 |
2 | RB Leipzig | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 21 |
3 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 26 | 16 | 10 | 20 |
4 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 21 | 16 | 5 | 17 |
5 | Freiburg | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 17 |
6 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 16 |
7 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 16 |
8 | Werder Bremen | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 21 | -4 | 15 |
9 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 14 | 1 | 14 |
10 | Mainz 05Mainz | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 14 | 1 | 13 |
11 | Stuttgart | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 13 |
12 | Wolfsburg | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 18 | 1 | 12 |
13 | Augsburg | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 12 |
14 | Heidenheim | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 10 |
15 | Hoffenheim | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 19 | -6 | 9 |
16 | St Pauli | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 8 |
17 | Holstein Kiel | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 25 | -13 | 5 |
18 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 30 | -20 | 2 |
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