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AZ Alkmaar
Ajax
FC Twente logo
FC Utrecht
Feyenoord
Fortuna Sittard
Go Ahead Eagles
Groningen
Heerenveen
Heracles Almelo
NAC Breda
NEC
PEC Zwolle
PSV
Waalwijk logo
Sparta Rotterdam logo
Willem II
Groningen
Eredivisie | Gameweek 23
Feb 25, 2023 at 3.30pm UK
Euroborg
Excelsior

Groningen
3 - 0
Excelsior

Hove (13'), Pepi (50'), van Gelderen (66')
FT(HT: 1-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Eredivisie clash between Groningen and SBV Excelsior, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Groningen 1-1 Emmen
Saturday, February 18 at 5.45pm in Eredivisie
Last Game: Excelsior 0-3 Nijmegen
Sunday, February 19 at 7pm in Eredivisie

We said: Groningen 2-1 SBV Excelsior

With two out-of-sorts teams going head-to-head, we are anticipating a nervy and tense affair here. That said, we are backing Groningen to make home advantage count and narrowly get the job done in the end. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Groningen win with a probability of 58.98%. A draw had a probability of 22.9% and a win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 18.15%.

The most likely scoreline for a Groningen win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.05%) and 2-1 (9.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.86%), while for a SBV Excelsior win it was 0-1 (6.04%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Groningen would win this match.

Result
GroningenDrawSBV Excelsior
58.98% (0.038000000000004 0.04) 22.87% (-0.024000000000001 -0.02) 18.15% (-0.012999999999998 -0.01)
Both teams to score 49.01% (0.050000000000004 0.05)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
50.26% (0.078000000000003 0.08)49.74% (-0.076999999999998 -0.08)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
28.25% (0.068999999999999 0.07)71.75% (-0.067999999999998 -0.07)
Groningen Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.46% (0.040999999999997 0.04)16.53% (-0.041 -0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
53.71% (0.070999999999998 0.07)46.29% (-0.07 -0.07)
SBV Excelsior Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
58.72% (0.032000000000004 0.03)41.28% (-0.030999999999999 -0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
22.19% (0.027999999999999 0.03)77.8% (-0.025999999999996 -0.03)
Score Analysis
    Groningen 58.97%
    SBV Excelsior 18.15%
    Draw 22.86%
GroningenDrawSBV Excelsior
1-0 @ 12.28% (-0.020000000000001 -0.02)
2-0 @ 11.05%
2-1 @ 9.78% (0.0040000000000013 0)
3-0 @ 6.63% (0.0059999999999993 0.01)
3-1 @ 5.87% (0.010000000000001 0.01)
4-0 @ 2.98% (0.0059999999999998 0.01)
4-1 @ 2.64% (0.008 0.01)
3-2 @ 2.6% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
4-2 @ 1.17% (0.004 0)
5-0 @ 1.07% (0.004 0)
5-1 @ 0.95% (0.005 0.01)
Other @ 1.95%
Total : 58.97%
1-1 @ 10.86% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-0 @ 6.82% (-0.022 -0.02)
2-2 @ 4.33% (0.0049999999999999 0)
Other @ 0.85%
Total : 22.86%
0-1 @ 6.04% (-0.013999999999999 -0.01)
1-2 @ 4.81% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
0-2 @ 2.67% (-0.004 -0)
1-3 @ 1.42% (0.00099999999999989 0)
2-3 @ 1.28% (0.002 0)
Other @ 1.94%
Total : 18.15%

How you voted: Groningen vs Excelsior

Groningen
78.6%
Draw
14.3%
SBV Excelsior
7.1%
14
Head to Head
Jan 8, 2023 3.45pm
Excelsior
1-0
Groningen
El Yaakoubi (69')
Azarkan (37'), Driouech (59')

van Gelderen (40'), Suslov (61'), Dybvik Maatta (81')
Dec 15, 2021 7pm
Second Round
Excelsior
2-4
Groningen
Niemeijer (23'), Baas (69')
Dallinga (105')
Ngonge (45+1'), El Hankouri (85' pen.), Strand Larsen (111', 115')
Duarte (64')
Apr 6, 2019 6.45pm
Nov 2, 2018 7pm
Excelsior
2-4
Groningen
Koolwijk (36'), Bruins (59' pen.)
Hadouir (42')
Mahi (26'), Doan (29'), Cassierra (51'), Pohl (75')
Apr 29, 2018 1.30pm
Groningen
4-0
Excelsior
Van Weert (42', 73'), Memisevic (45'), Doan (71')

Koolwijk (35'), Mattheij (45')
rhs 2.0
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1PSV EindhovenPSV18151261154646
2Ajax18133239172242
3FC UtrechtUtrecht1711333428636
4Feyenoord17105240211935
5AZ AlkmaarAZ18103533191433
6FC Twente1794432211131
7Go Ahead Eagles188463327628
8Fortuna SittardSittard187472528-325
9Willem II176472119222
10NAC BredaNAC Breda177191927-822
11Heerenveen176381731-1421
12NECNijmegen1862102424020
13PEC Zwolle184591627-1117
14Groningen164481426-1216
15Heracles173681934-1515
16Sparta RotterdamSparta182791527-1213
17Almere CityAlmere City1723121037-279
18RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk1814131943-247


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